Caribbean disturbance 9/28/05

[David Wolfson]

Satellite presentation of the disturbance SSE of Jamaica is getting pretty impressive this morning, upper environment is becoming more favorable for persistence and intensification, and Caribbean Sea is a hottub. Likely the next Atlantic TD of the season IMHO FWIW. Here we go again? :roll:

[Note: NHC doesn't seem concerned about it yet AFAIK]

[Sam Sagnella]

I'm definitely thinking this one has "stan the man" written all over it, though we probably won't know for sure til tomorrow. INVEST99 is looking very healthy compared to 24hrs ago and there has been an explosion deep convection in the last 6hrs. A QuikSCAT pass at ~1000UTC today missed the system, but the wave is moving into an area of enhanced LL convergence, so, even if there is not a surface low forming, a continuing increase in organization is likely. Per the latest TWO, a recon flight is scheduled to investigate the area tomorrow, so even if it's looking like a depression later today the NHC will probably wait for confirmation. Anyway, assuming it develops further, steering currents in the NW Caribbean are very weak so this is something we'll need to keep an eye on for a while. Bottom line, NW Caribbean (especially Jamaica/Cayman Islands) need to be prepared for possible tropical cyclone development in the next 24-36hrs. Further down the line...like I mentioned, steering currents will be weak, so everyone from the Yucatan to Cuba to the FL Keys needs to monitor this wave.

[B Ozanne]

Is anybody else seeing signs of circulation? I'm starting to see something in the satellite loops.

[Jason Toft]

I concur. There's definately a circulation, and it almost looks, just because of the shear, it looks like an eye..lol.

I think that the NHC should at least put out an update saying that the system is becoming better organized. I'm sure my local ABC "Accu-weather" meteorolgist, Denis Philips, is going crazy over this. Whatever. Gosh, I intensely dislike him. Anyways, I think that there should be a TD, what, 20(?) by 0500 tomorrow morning, if not by 1100. The shear still looks pretty high, but diminishing.

Jason

[MClarkson]

there is a decent upper level anticyclone... look at the anvil tops off the surrounding sea breeze tstorms.

[David Wolfson]

...Not quite as impressive tonight!.... :?

[cdcollura]

Hummm, It kinda "crapped out", didn't it?

But look east towards the central tropical Atlantic, maybe that will wind up using anothe letter ;-)