Tropical storm (err, hurricane!) Vince heading for Europe? [Archive]

David Shohami

10-09-2005, 01:26 PM

A tropical storm (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/091500.shtml) forming where it did (34N), moving immidiately north-east and not west or north-west (or even north), and making its way towards Spain?!

How rare is this?

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/~idds/images/out/20051009_170000_07_D2_0.jpg

Andrew Khan

10-09-2005, 02:23 PM

This is pretty rare, indeed. Usually, Hurricanes don't form in this area, due to certain climatology factors, affecting TS/Hurricane development.

Stuart Robinson

10-09-2005, 04:41 PM

SST’s are warmish enough (23c-34c) to support cyclone development and latest satellite numbers now support 60 knt winds! However Vince is a very small system and will soon be absorbed by a cold front that is surging south East towards it.

Interesting that some of our higher tornado days (numbers wise) in North West Europe occur from frontal passages that contain tropical air.

From the TORRO FAQ.
The largest tornado outbreak in Britain is also the largest tornado outbreak known anywhere in Europe. On November 21, 1981, 105 tornadoes were spawned by a cold front in the space of 5.25 hours. Excepting Derbyshire, every county in a triangular area from Gwynedd to Humberside to Essex was hit by at least one tornado, while Norfolk was hit by at least 13. Very fortunately most tornadoes were short-lived and also weak (the strongest was around T5 on the TORRO Tornado Scale) and no deaths occurred.

B Ozanne

10-09-2005, 04:47 PM

I'm not sure if this is a typo, but the NHC site has the system as a hurricane. It doesn't say anything in the discussion or public advisory, but the graphic says "Hurricane Vince"

Edit: Ok, I'm told the advisories now verify the hurricane status.

Stuart Robinson

10-09-2005, 04:47 PM

Err Vince has just been upgraded to a hurricane :shock:

Jeff Snyder

10-09-2005, 04:49 PM

I'm not sure if this is a typo, but the NHC site has the system as a hurricane. It doesn't say anything in the discussion or public advisory, but the graphic says "Hurricane Vince"

Bill,
The system is upgraded to a Hurricane as of the 21z advisory package.

David Shohami

10-09-2005, 05:02 PM

This is quite amazing!

It already looked more than just a tropical storm in the sat pic in the first message, with that nice distinct eye.

Could this be the northern-most system that developed to a hurricane? I mean wow, 34N, this is the mid latitudes...

Andrew Khan

10-09-2005, 05:10 PM

The eye is really awsome on this thing, isn't it? What category is it, 1?

Chris Nuttall

10-09-2005, 06:17 PM

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IDDS-cgi/listImages

Go here for satellite images of Vince. You can also view a loop. Guess we shouldn't be surprised at the weird-ness of Vince (is that even a word?). Pretty much fits for this bizarre hurricane season.

Andrew Khan

10-09-2005, 06:57 PM

LOL, it really fits this years overly-hyper hurricane season.

Aaron Kennedy

10-09-2005, 07:24 PM

My friend gave it a good name... the "Spain-o-cane"

;)

Aaron

Chris Sokol

10-09-2005, 07:36 PM

The Cane in Spain will mainly cause some rain.

MClarkson

10-09-2005, 07:39 PM

a hurricane(named system 20) with a well defined eye headed off the coast of portugal?

Well, given what has allready happened these past 2 years, Im really not all that suprised.

Pat Lawrence

10-09-2005, 07:54 PM

My friend gave it a good name... the "Spain-o-cane"

;)

Aaron

Spain-o-cane would just about describe it! I'm beginning to wonder if icewater wouldn't produce a tropical system this year:)

Pat

Stuart Robinson

10-09-2005, 09:01 PM

This is about the best image of Vince that I can find - taken at 16z. I notice that at 16z the western side looks somewhat devoid of convection - but also that there is a good convection in the NW Quad.

http://www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weath...-1700-vince.JPG (http://www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/etc09m/nj09-msg-1700-vince.JPG)

Marko Korosec

10-10-2005, 02:51 AM

Here is one cool pic of Vince:

http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/6281/tropicalstorm8qh.jpg

Maybe someone of you have any statistics about hurricanes or tropical storms so close to Europe or in Europe? Thanks.

-Marko

Aaron Kennedy

10-10-2005, 08:41 AM

Marko,

Nice shot... what site did you get it from?

Aaron

Pedro C. Fernández

10-10-2005, 09:08 AM

In Cazatormentas.Net we have changed our main page for VINCE, now a Tropical Storm, which is predicted to reach the Iberian Peninsula tomorrow. Clicking over the image in the main page, you will see a topic in which members are monitoring the evolution of VINCE. Very interesting!

It's so incredible to see a hurricane near of my country... :shock: ! I can't believe it!

www.cazatormentas.net

Jason Toft

10-10-2005, 09:08 AM

I think, if possible, we should take an edited version of that picture and make it the Stormtrack logo for a little while, since a storm in that area is so rare.

Just a thought! :)

Jason

Pedro C. Fernández

10-10-2005, 09:21 AM

Spain and, in general, the Iberian Peninsula, has been reached by low systems with tropical origins. But I think (I can not assure it) this is the first time a pure tropical system reaches Iberia, if VINCE reaches it with tropical characteristics...

David Draun

10-10-2005, 11:38 AM

The Cane in Spain will mainly cause some rain.

And the rain from the Cane in Spain will fall mainly on the plain. :lol:

This is really a shocker. 2005, the year where climatology didn't mean crap!

Joe Guerra

10-10-2005, 12:38 PM

well...i think i can die happy now, i think ive seen everything a cane SHOULDN'T do!

Pedro C. Fernández

10-10-2005, 02:08 PM

VINCE is still a Tropical Storm and it's moving to the Cadiz Gulf :shock: It's incredible because a movement to Portugal, even Galicia, was predicted and it has moved to the east, not to the NE or NNE :)

Spanish forums are a bomb this evening :shock: !!!

David Shohami

10-10-2005, 03:27 PM

Dan Robinson

10-10-2005, 05:29 PM

Does anyone know why all of the the NHC graphics for Vince remain 'zoomed out' to show the entire Atlantic, rather than zoomed/centered on the storm itself? The storm's track/projected path cone have always been on the edges of the map, to the point of even being covered up by other things on the fringes of the map. I'm guessing this is to show the relative position to the USA but I wasn't sure.

Pat Lawrence

10-10-2005, 06:45 PM

This has given me a new hope regarding the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming in the eastern Mediterranean :D the sea temperature is definately not a problem with 30C in August-September. And now the latitude may not be a problem anymore :D

Got this from Wikipedia, David (probably not the best source of information:)

Mediterranean Sea: Storms which appear similar to tropical cyclones in structure sometimes occur in the Mediterranean basin. Such cyclones formed in September 1947, September 1969, January 1982, September 1983, and January 1995. However, there is debate on whether these storms were tropical in nature.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane

Pat

Andrew Khan

10-10-2005, 07:27 PM

It's got some pretty good structure/shape and has a very well defined eye/eye wall. It has this unique slanting shape to it as well...

Michael Auker

10-10-2005, 10:41 PM

Looks like Vince will be hitting Portugal, Spain, and Morocco as a tropical storm, according to the NHC. That is one thing I never thought I would see. I guess some European weather weenie's wish has come true. :D

Andrew Khan

10-10-2005, 11:49 PM

This is a weather anomaly...this isn't normal. What is the environment doing, to create these extreme situations..

Marko Korosec

10-11-2005, 12:53 AM

Pedro C. Fernández

10-11-2005, 04:49 AM

Wow...! VINCE is still Tropical Storm and some satellite images shows the cloud-bands moving around an eye. Still making a pretty monitoring of situation in Spanish Weather Forums and also in Cazatormentas.Net

http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/index.ph...n.html#msg74937 (http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/index.php/topic,4824.from1129019960/topicseen.html#msg74937)

VINCE is moving over the SW of Iberia with 998 mb. IT has became stronger in the last hours :shock:

Some webcams from Cadiz shows images like Cuba o Mexico Gulf :shock: !!

(Note: my avatar is not true, of course. Only a little photomontage created by me.)

David Shohami

10-11-2005, 05:44 AM

David Shohami,
here is an Italian site about such cyclones in Mediteranean, they're called TLC (Tropical Like Cyclones I guess): http://www.fenomenitemporaleschi.it/page18c.htm
It's in Italian language, but you can translate it somehow with online translators :wink:

Aaron,
I found it on one forum...unfortunatelly there wasn't any link besides, just an attached pic, so I really don't know where to find it sorry :oops:

-Marko

Thanks! Very interesting!!

And now in the last discussion by the NHC they say that this is the first tropical cyclone in recorded history that ever made landfall in the Iberian peninsula. (And why not in Europe altogether?)

Marko Korosec

10-11-2005, 05:59 AM

000
WTNT43 KNHC 110829
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005
THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO
PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SPAIN.
-----------

I am wondering, too...is this the first TC just in Iberian peninsula or in whole Europe? Maybe there was something in NW France or United Kingdom in the past?

-Marko

Pedro C. Fernández

10-11-2005, 06:48 AM

I am wondering, too...is this the first TC just in Iberian peninsula or in whole Europe? Maybe there was something in NW France or United Kingdom in the past?

-Marko

Perhaps all the records in Europe are remains of old hurricanes and other tropical low systems, but not true tropical systems making landfall,

Absolutely incredible to my eyes... :shock: !

By the way, VINCE is now a Tropical Depression...