12/14 - 12/15 SNOWSTORM: GREAT LAKES

[Tim Gonyo]

Looks like things could get interesting during the middle part of next week. Comments guys?

Here's the AFD out of KMKE.

AS FOR MID WEEK SYS...CANADIAN DEVELOPS QUITE A STORM FOR WED
WITH A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SRN WI. DGEX SHOWS MORE OF A GULF LOW
PULLING OUT TO THE NE...WHILE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING MORE OF A
PROGRESSIVE LOOKING UPR SYS ACRS NRN TIER OF STATES. WITH
THE LACK OF CONSENSUS AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITHIN
THE GFS POINTS TOWARDS KEEPING CHANCE GOING FOR WED/THU TIME
FRAME.

[rdale]

"Comments guys?"

Yep. Since no model had last night's half-foot+ storm until 48 hours prior to the event, I'd put a non-consensus, not-supported-by-ensemble outlook 5 days ahead on the backburner.

[Robert Dewey]

The 12Z GFS is leaning more towards the 00Z GEM solution... Right now, the key is to just look at the patterns and ensemble solutions, not much else you can do right now. As Rob said, I will put this on the back burner and re-post in this thread when the storm system seems a bit more likely - provided it's still targeting the Great Lakes.

[Tim Gonyo]

CPC is hinting at the storm I mentioned earlier....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ats/threats.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif)

[Dan Cook]

Davenport mentions a major snow storm as well. :D

[Joel Wright]

I will keep it in the very back of my mind to say the least until it's nearing 60hrs out.

The run to run differences are still ridiculous with this storm. Add in some possible negative feedback issues with snowpack, and possibly adding a little more to it before the storm hits, makes for a very low confidence outlook.

[Tim Gonyo]

OK, just as a note, I am using all 18Z runs of the American Models and the 12Z of the EURO...

Please ignore precip on all maps.

Lets start at the NAM:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v699/phyres81/12151.jpg

GFS:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v699/phyres81/12152.jpg

Surface map of Jan 2 1999:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v699/phyres81/12153.jpg

Look at the placement of the Highs and Lows that I have outlined...

Notice anything similar?

With the exception of the weaker pressures, this is setting up to be almost exactly the same.

Lets move down the road to 120hrs away, Low #1 and 2 have merged:

GFS:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v699/phyres81/12154.jpg

This is much weaker with everything across the board, so thats why I its placing the GL low so far north, but you still get the idea.

Here is the Surface Map:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v699/phyres81/12155.jpg

Still very similar...

Notice those 3 high pressures, If we can get those highs to be as strong as 99, I would bet money that we would have a repeat of the 99 blizzard. The EURO is very good on representing this, as you will see.

And to close my discussion about these 2 storms, The EURO:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v699/phyres81/12156.jpg

"The Ghost Of The 99 Blizzard"

This is disturbing...I received 24.5 inches of snow in southern WI on 1/2/1999 with intense thundersnow for awhile....and 65 mph wind gusts.

[Robert Dewey]

It is interesting. I'd like to see what the upper air patterns looked like for the 1999 storm to really see if there was any similarity. My guess is that the 500MB shortwaves and upper level jets were more amplified in 1999... Then again, the 1999 storm didn't really deepen all that much (996MB as it passed over lower MI).

Anyway, this event is still a ways out AND model continuity is pretty poor right now. I'd wait until the event is at most 60-72 hours away and well captured by short term models.

I really hope something happens... I can't stand the cold without anything fun happening.

[rdale]

Lots of low pressure and high pressure setups look the same - but you need to use much more than a surface plot. How's the jet stream in comparison? What did 500mb look like then vs forecast now?

[Robert Dewey]

Lots of low pressure and high pressure setups look the same - but you need to use much more than a surface plot. How's the jet stream in comparison? What did 500mb look like then vs forecast now?

I couldn't find any 500MB data - but Unisys has an archive of the 4-panel plots (SFC, 850MB, 300MB, and LI). From the 300MB plot, I gather that there were two very seperate shortwaves in 1999, with the lead shortwave being in the southern stream. The southern stream shortwave was located over southern TX, while the northern wave was located over northern MT.

With our current system, it looks like the dominant shortwave will turn out to be the northern stream wave, but that could change. Also, the models are very light with QPF - that's another difference between these two systems.

With the 1999 system, I remember watching it when it was 7 days out on the "MRF". The system seemed to get "lost" as the event got closer (it was completely gone in the day 4 to day 5 timeframe), but then reappeared. I also remember that 6HR model QPF for a big chunk of land was 0.50 to 0.75 inches. Our current system doesn't seem to carry QPF that high.

[Mike Umscheid]

I wouldn't bet money on anything. January 1999 was an interesting phasing of two systems that evolved into one significant extra-tropical cyclone (I remember it well, we were *supposed* to get 10" in Kansas City and we ended up with maybe an inch)... the interaction of two systems is never "given"... The interaction is dependent on so many things and you can either end up with one significant vorticity max that allows the development of a robust surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet supporting ingredients for possible blizzard conditions.... or you can get a sort of fuji-wara of two vorticity maximas that end up rotating around each other... and you get two surface responses close to each other.. destroying your good pressure gradient for a significant and widespread snow+wind event... right now I see the ecmwf and gfs favoring more the latter. In fact there will probably be three disturbances at play here... and if they don't interact in the "perfect way" you just get a messy, disorganized winter storm with some snow and maybe a little wind... with a 1000 low here, a 1009 trough axis there, and a 1027 high to the west... To get a major blizzard, there needs to be incredible anticyclogenesis OR cyclogeneis to get the strong pressure gradient, of course.... right now I just see "decent" cyclogenesis and a poor signal of robust anticyclogenesis or absence of a huge arctic 1040+ high in close proximity to the north or northwest.

This is why predicting blizzards is extremely difficult. It takes a very delicate balance of ingredients with cold air, moisture, jet streak dynamics, etc etc etc... on all atmospheric scales... which I honestly say we can't predict easily at all even 2 to 3 days in advance... So I put my money on a wait and see :-) Models right now are changing so much... just look at all the little purturbations on a north american water vapor loop right now... it's extremely chaotic.

If you can say explosive deep tropospheric cyclogensis will occur with a singular dominant h5 vort center, with one dominant mid-upper jet streak involved allowing just one surface cyclonic/anticyclonic couplet to vigoroustly develop at h+120... then you are a better forecaster than I am :-)

Mike U

[Robert Dewey]

Models right now are changing so much... just look at all the little purturbations on a north american water vapor loop right now... it's extremely chaotic.

That's for sure. Not only do the models not handle phasing all that well - but with the shortwaves still over the ocean, I doubt they were well sampled.

As of right now, I'm not really "feeling it" in terms of a big snowstorm or blizzard... In other words, my hopes aren't high at all. But then again, even if the majority of the models DID have "the storm of the century", my hopes still wouldn't be that high. The fact is, with the system still being a solid 84 to 102HR's out, things WILL change.

FWIW... The latest NAM and GFS show two seperate shortwaves at 500MB exhibiting a slight Fujiwara effect that Mike U. was talking about.

[Joel Wright]

Some pretty big differences right now just between the NAM and GFS. At 78hrs, the NAM has the 850 freezing line in central WI, while at the same time the GFS is in southern IL!!

[Joel Wright]

Now that the system is nearing the 60hr mark, I guess it can be taken more seriously now, well at least for me lol. The GFS and NAM have become a little more similar to each other than previous runs. The NAM still has a small wedge of warm air ahead of the main trough, just above the surface, but is much less bullish on the amount of warm air compared to previous runs. The GFS has been the most consistant.

The bottom line is, this whole storm system looks to be pretty complex, so there's still a very good chance certain issues won't be resolved for another 30-42hrs.

If we can close off a decent low at the southern end of the trough there could be quite a snowstorm for someone, but right now that doesn't look like it's going to happen.

[Robert Dewey]

Models seem to be coming into BETTER agreement... But as you said Joel, there are still some small differences (small differences in terms of placement, timing, evolution - the "better" agreement means that we are all on the same page with a storm, LOL) that will have a big effect on what ultimately happens. I'm really liking how the models are trending towards a single vorticity maximum, versus three. I'm also likeing the less-progressive system, so areas that do see snow will see a longer shot of it.

There are still two main SFC reflections though - one in the MS Valley and one near the Gulf. If we can get those to phase a bit further south or at least the southern wave ride north along the slow moving baroclinic zone / front, someone may be looking at pretty heavy snowfall. Not really concerned about blizzard conditions at this moment in time, but heavy snow looks like a possibility for someone.

Reading over NWS discussions, DTX mentions that various snowfall techniques are showing 6-8 inches at a 15:1 ratio, with the potential for convective snow. Obviously that's not the forecast, just sort of a "what if" situation.

[Robert Dewey]

Things look pretty complex with this system (or systems). The main SFC low situates itself across the WI/MN area... While a secondary low forms near the East Coast. This gives us two main areas of high QPF values (at least on the NAM) - one near the main SFC low, and another area along the track of the East Coast low. Areas in between have rather dry QPF amounts.

As for MI... Latest 12Z NAM now shows <0.25 inch of QPF where it originally had over 0.75 inches over central lower MI. Of interest though is the East Coast low, which has been tracking further west with each run. My specific location shows a QPF of around 0.50 inches, while 45 miles to the east QPF's are 1.00 inch.

This is still quite a ways out there (48-60HR), but it could get real interesting if that East Coast low continues to show a more westward / phased track.

[Joel Wright]

Looks like the northeast half of Iowa could get a nice heavy wet snow later tonight and tomorrow. It will be interesting to see where the rain/snow line sets up and how it moves throughout the storm. North-central and northeast Iowa look to be in the bullseye for snow totals.

For me it's going to be a nail biter. The snow looks like it may try to change to rain at some point tomorrow, which could really shut down accumulations. Man it will be kind of weird seeing rain after it being so cold! :wink:

[Andrew Geil]

Man, talk about a complex forecast.

Rain, snow, sleet, ice, rain, sleet, snow ice, rain rain, sleet. I don't think anyone knows whats gonna happen; aside from Wendsday is going to be one icky, wet, rainy, snowy day. Good day to curl up by the fire and read a book.

[Robert Dewey]

Okay... yeah... Very complex... LOL

Most of the 12Z models (06Z UKMET, 00Z ECMWF) agree that the main shortwave won't consolidate all of the vorticity. What appears to be happening is the "left over" vorticity streaming down the backside of the shortwave trough creates sort of a "Fujiwara" effect (as mentioned earlier). The secondary area of vorticiy then dives east/southeastward into the developing +150KNT upper level jet - which ultimately becomes responsible for SFC low along the Gulf.

The BIG question is... How close in proximity to the main shortwave will the secondary shortwave rotate around? 12Z guidance has that shortwave closer to the main wave, bringing the Gulf low further west. In fact, the NAM has been trending furth west with each run since yesterday's 12Z stuff.

That has a big impact for regions of MI, OH, etc.. If that Gulf low DOES track further west, we'd be looking at storm total (+30 hour) QPF's in excess of an inch with a "one two punch" situation (main burst of precipitation with the main shortwave, then the secondary wave blowing up to the east/southeast). If that Gulf low remains further east, we're talking about <0.25 inches...

Given the complexity and very low confidence - I doubt the NWS offices will be issuing any watches anytime soon.

[Bill Schintler]

Summary:

Snowfall will start in Cedar Rapids around 11 PM, and a mixture of snow, rain, and freezing rain will start in Iowa City around the same time. Between 12AM and 3AM, expect a period of moderate freezing rain in Washington, Iowa, and Benton Counties; with ice accumulations of around 0.1". During the same period, precipitation should remain all snow N of US-30 in ERN IA with a mixture to the S and all rain to the W of the aforementioned counties. A changeover to all snow will take place over the entire area by 6AM tomorrow. Precipitation will linger trough 6PM Wednesday, at which time it will taper to flurries.

Snowfall accumulation:
Iowa City: 2"
Cedar Rapids: 3" (Eastern Iowa Airport), 6" in the north portions of the city.

Discussion:

Concerns: precipitation type, especially early on in the system as an area of freezing rain will develop, and the amount of snowfall. Currently, SFC low pressure centered in ND, with associated trough extending SWRD and a WF bisecting IA from SE to NW. Strongest pressure falls are taking place in SERN ND, while a band of strong WAA is taking place as evidenced by 30kt 850mb LLJ advecting a 304k airmass into the ERN Dakotas. An interesting phasing of the NRN and SRN stream waves will take place over the planes from 0Z Wed through 12Z Wed, with upper flow then developing into a cut-off low that will linger over the Great Lakes through the end of the week. ATTM, it seems like two QPF maxes will occur with this system, with highest amounts to the NW and the SE of the ERN IA as areas of frontogenesis develop in each of these areas. In ERN IA, go with 6:1 snow/water ratio N of US-30, taper down to 3:1 S of I-80 where much of the precipitation will be liquid. Forcing is increasing, as noted in several fields: Q-vector divergence, tropopause-level PV advection, and omega fields.

Guidance is in decent agreement, with the 12Z GFS somewhat faster then the 12Z ECMWF and 12Z MAM. All are fairly close with regard to overall placement of features, and the latest runs have slowed down the onset of the precipitation by several hours. The ECMWF has had the best run-to-run consistency the last few days, and will side with it. Concerning precipitation type, forecast soundings indicate temperatures near 30F at the SFC but with temps above freezing at 850mb, so freezing rain will be a concern during the first portion of the precipitation period before colder mid-level temperatures advect into the area. By mid-afternoon, Wednesday, dry-slotting should work in from the SW, ending precipitation S of I-80 in ERN IA.

- bill

[Robert Dewey]

I decided to plot of the 12-HR QPF differences between the 00Z NAM and the 12Z NAM. The light green is +0.25 inches, with each color interval being another 0.10 inches.

http://69.14.190.10/images/precip.gif

[Joel Wright]

This storm is making me lose my hair lol. It's going to be a VERY close call in my immediate area. The new 18z NAM is even warmer than before. (Although I'm not a fan of the midday runs).

I think a band of 6-8" of heavy wet snow will line up along a line from Waterloo IA to Dubuque, and towards Rockford IL.

The combination of warm air intrusion just above the surface, and dry slotting makes the forecast along the I-80 corridor very scary. If anything changes either way, it could go from a 2" snow, to an 8" one very easily, or visa versa.

Much of MN and WI are going to see a long duration light snow event, which could gradually pile up pretty nicely too for them.


For you guys out east, well, this storm is obviously very complex, so I guess it's just a waiting game for now. But it's fun watching things change from run to run! 8)

[Alex Lamers]

Sitting here just west of Milwaukee I am forecasting 4-7 inches for my general area. I think the 4 is the bare minimum and most people around my area will get 5-7 inches. Liquid should be about 0.4 to 0.55 or 0.6 maybe if some of the more robust solutions pan out. Been broadcasting a solid 12:1 ratio here for awhile with various techniques. NAM is definately the lightest but I don't trust its winter snowfall prediction. NGM has a broad area of +0.5 inches which by my calculations would mean 6 inches or more. Time to wait for the 14/00Z GFS run and other models to leak in.

ARX wrote a great discussion this afternoon. I'd recommend reading it if u want to get a hold on the situation.

...Alex Lamers...

[Robert Dewey]

Still very complex for us folks a bit further east between 06Z THU and 18Z THU.

It looks like the moisture from the Gulf / Coastal system will make it into the eastern third of lower MI, and the dryslot now appears to be delayed. The column gets saturated between the SFC and 600MB at 06Z THU and remains so until 18Z THU. Strong omega values are also present during that entire 12HR period within that moist layer... The only drawback I see is that that moisture doesn't extend to 500MB, and the best omega / RH values are located within the -10C to -14C thermal layer through 12Z. Between 12Z and 18Z, the thermal profile becomes more favorable for snow growth (-15C to -20C).

Moving on... Substantial CSI (100MB thick) exists during the above mentioned 12HR period centered around 700-600MB. That's also within the region of strong omega and frontogenesis.

And then on to model QPF... The NAM shows around 0.60 to 0.75 inches across portions of MI. The Canadian GEM is very similar, with portions of MI receiving 0.80 inches - in fact, the GEM has quite a bit more moisture located farther west than any of the other models. The NGM (though the entire model looks odd) shows around 0.50 inches. The FSL RUC comes in at 0.50 to 0.75 inches...

I'll update my post in a few minutes when the GFS is in... Currently out to F48 and it shows 700MB moisture / omega much further west than the 12Z run...

Update: Okay, GFS is in... It looks nearly identical to the GEM. The Gulf / Coastal system tracks further west - phasing significantly will the main SFC low before pulling off. It brings in QPF's of 0.75 to 1.00 inch across eastern/northern lower MI.

The event still has plenty of time to evolve, but as of now I'm liking the trends.

[Dan Robinson]

Watching the potential for a nice glaze ice/freezing rain event with this system on the eastern side of the Appalachians. Good wedging setup with warm air stuck on the west side of the mountains and cold air entrenched on the east side.

NWS hasn't pulled the trigger on a watch/warning yet, but I'm gearing up for another trip into the Blue Ridge around Christiansburg/Wytheville. Who said there was nothing to chase in the winter :)

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Dan Robinson
Watching the potential for a nice glaze ice/freezing rain event with this system on the eastern side of the Appalachians. Good wedging setup with warm air stuck on the west side of the mountains and cold air entrenched on the east side.

NWS hasn't pulled the trigger on a watch/warning yet, but I'm gearing up for another trip into the Blue Ridge around Christiansburg/Wytheville. Who said there was nothing to chase in the winter :)

Yeah, the slightly further west track of the NAM / GFS really supports an ice storm with that cold air damming. I'm just hoping the models don't all of a sudden reverse their trend, and with a few more model runs left - it does worry me.

For my area - It wouldn't be the first time that all of the models kept a dry slot at bay, only for it to really blast through and choke everything off.

My prediction is that NWS DTX won't be issuing a WSW with the AM/morning package. I have a feeling this event won't be preceded by a watch. I also doubt the NWS GRR will issue a WSW either, with even less confidence that moisture will stick around. With all of the models showing the same thing - I would probably go with a watch for areas east of a JYM/LAN to MCD (Mackinac) in line with the GFS QPF fields. --> http://69.14.190.10/images/winter_watch.gif

[Joel Wright]

Rain? What the heck is this liquid stuff falling from the sky?

Well, our snow quickly shifted over to rain before sunise, but before it did we got a quick two inches of cement. It's kind of weird seeing rain after it being so cold for so long.

This storm was pretty wimpy overall. Most areas got much less than expected.

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Joel Wright
This storm was pretty wimpy overall. Most areas got much less than expected.

Guess it depends on the region... Parts of MN and WI are reporting around 8 inches with snow still falling (NWS calling for storm totals of 9-11 inches). I think that's pretty much what they expected up there, but I'm not positive (didn't follow along with the NWS discussions for that area).

The best thing to look at before an event is the RH values at 600-500MB - that shows where the dry slot will setup. Also, a strong southerly flow with 850MB temps hovering right around 0C isn't all that good for snow potential. For what it's worth, the 18Z GFS from yesterday did verify QPF values quite well - especially over IA/western IL/MO (looking at the 24HR METAR liquid precip values).

Now it's time for me to wait and see how the Gulf low interacts with this system... Should add a significant amount of moisture with local WRF models showing over 1.00 inch QPF's for eastern lower MI.

[Dan Cook]

got nada here. :cry:

[Robert Dewey]

Watches starting to fly for lower MI. NWS DTX calling for around 10 inches in the east - possibly higher if convection can develop. Latest 18Z NAM shows storm total 1.00 inch QPF amounts... With peaks of 1.17 inches just to the east of lower MI... This is also inline with the WRF models.

Given the depth of the CSI and vertical velocity, convective snow looks like a real possibility.

[Dan Robinson]

Currently in Wytheville VA trying to make the final decision of where to 'target' and dig in. Certainly won't be able to reposition much when this starts. Expecting to lose power, so not sure how long WIFI will hold out. Temps along the valleys of the Blue Ridge mountains are in the mid to high 20s so things are set to get going after midnight.

[Dan Robinson]

Moved down to Hickory, NC. A tad warmer down here, but still below freezing - and DPs are in the teens so still some room to come down a couple of degrees overnight. Favoring the higher QPF amounts down here as opposed to up north. They'll get ice up there in VA but it looks to be a longer duration event here that could be pretty intense.

(Mods, If this deserves a new thread, feel free to create it but I'm probably the only one down here)

[Robert Dewey]

It's all the same storm... I think it should be fine.

The NAM 00Z to 03Z QPF fields seemed to intialize okay. I did notice that it underestimated the backside of the precipitation shield over AR. At 700MB, vertical velocities are nearly non-existant over that area. All in all, I think the 18Z GFS actually had the best handle on what is currently happening QPF-wise.

Otherwise, I did notice a slight jog eastward in the NAM QPF fields compared to the 12/18Z runs... But we're only talking <25 miles at best. NGM QPF fields nearly identical to its 12Z run. Guess we'll have to wait and see what the GFS and WRF models show...

[Caleb Lawrence]

Lightly flurried yesterday in the late afternoon, but no accumulation. It's been snowing since about 4am today that I know of, and two to three fresh inches have fallen; and still coming down quite liberally. It's large, sticky wet snow as of the moment. Traffic on I-75 is slowing down occasionally. Under a winter storm warning; and as such, 4-7 inches are forecasted to possibly fall by later this evening; ending the winter storm warning at 7pm (as of the latest forecast; subject to change).

I must say, good job at spotting this one out in advance, Tim.

[Tim Gonyo]

Thanks Caleb! :)

[Robert Dewey]

Picked up about an inch in the past hour here near Detroit, and it's snowing moderately to heavy as of now...

I think the 12Z NAM is still a tad too far east... For the second run in a row (not including the 06Z run), it has the back edge of the precipitation field too far east. National mosaic shows heavy snow expanding across most of IN and western OH -- headed north/northeast. The latest IR loop also shows very good cloud growth across IN/OH/western MI... WV loop shows what appears to be a "baroclinic leaf" signature in the more advanced stages. The NAM forecasts the notch of dry air (located near southern IN/KY) to pivot northeastward just to the south/east of MI later this evening / early tonight. Given that, I think the snow is here to stay for awhile, and wouldn't be surprised to see warning criteria snow as far west as LAN...

I suspect the pivot point for all of this precipitation will be near PHN (Port Huron, MI) or perhaps a bit further northeast.

[rdale]

We're still not accumulating any here or in Jackson at last check either...

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
We're still not accumulating any here or in Jackson at last check either...

Too warm, or what? Temps currently creeping up towards 32-33F here, which is kind of worries me. METAR analysis shows temps getting quite a bit warmer the farther west you go (i.e. towards LAN/GRR).

We're now at 3.0 inches... It's VERY heavy / wet and sticking to everything. Some locations near mine are already at 4 inches, particularly a bit further northeast.

15Z RUC keeps things going in the far east until 03Z... Things will taper from southwest to northeast I believe.

[Robert Dewey]

The snow is winding down now... We ended up with around 5.5 inches after compaction. The snow is VERY wet... I'm guessing snow to liquid ratios are less than 8 to 1. I'll probably go grab a sample just to see how much QPF actually fell. EDIT: Liquid to snow ratios were on the order of 6 to 1... Giving us a grand total of 0.90 inches of QPF.

Our snow depth is currently 9 to 11 inches... And if that sticks around, it will be the most snow on the ground prior to Christmas that I can remember (not saying much, LOL). Hopefully we can keep this snowpack and get another two good snowstorms before any significant melting... The deepest snowpack that I can remember was back in January of 1999... Towards the middle of January, I recorded a snow depth of 28 inches - roughly just under waist deep (the "Blizzard of '99" dropped 13 inches, with a couple 6 inchers after that). Most of it melted off after January.

What we REALLY need is a storm like this:

http://69.14.190.10/images/snow.gif

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by rdewey

What we REALLY need is a storm like this:


No, what you really want is this:

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/top5/snowtotalsc.gif

That was the funnest Halloween ever! Though the Twin Cities did have record cold temps for the couple of days following the snowfall; it was mighty cold!

[Robert Dewey]

That would be nice...

It just always seems like MI gets the short end of the stick (measuring stick? LOL). The biggest synoptic snows always seem to fall across MN/WI or IN/OH. (discounting nor'easters, mountains, etc..). For example, I can search up plenty of case studies for MN/WI that produced very widespread 12-18 inch storm totals. Just this last year, parts of IN/OH received ~30 inches from a "one-two punch" event (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/Dec22_23_2004SnowEvent.gif).

A "big snowstorm" in MI is a few places recording a foot (that happens ever couple of years)... Anything over 14-15 inches is unheard of away from the lakes... And anyone reporting over 20 inches would be laughed at by the NWS for submitting false reports :lol:. Looking at records from various NWS offices, Detroit hit 19 inches back in the mid 70's, and 25 inches with 12 foot drifts back in 1886 (QPF was 2.50 inches liquid - pretty solid drifts)...

I wonder if there's a reason for all of this? The average snowfall for most places in MI and MN/WI are pretty close...

[rdale]

No idea what we ended up with... I'd guess around 2-3" but it all melted on contact with the roads. Just a smidge of slush, so a "hit" prediction-wise but a "miss" impact-wise.

[Joel Wright]

Originally posted by rdewey
...It just always seems like MI gets the short end of the stick (measuring stick? LOL)...


I hear ya there. We always seem to get ripped off here too. It seems that every storm system misses us, at least the last few years anyway. I can't remember the last time I saw a snowstorm deposit over 6" of snow here.

I know one thing, these moisture starved systems depositing 2-4" of snow are getting boring.

I've only seen two really good snowstorms in the last ten years. Number one on my list would be Jan '95 which deposited 15" of snow in less than 12hrs with thundersnow. Number two would be the New Years storm of '99 which dumped a foot and a half on us in a two day period.

[Chris DeRosier]

I was (and still am) living in Duluth for that storm in 1991. I'll remember that for the rest of my life! Thundersnow with the same intensity as a severe thunderstorm, and cars buried to over the roofs. Amazing!

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div><!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

What we REALLY need is a storm like this:


No, what you really want is this:

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/top5/snowtotalsc.gif

That was the funnest Halloween ever! Though the Twin Cities did have record cold temps for the couple of days following the snowfall; it was mighty cold![/b]

[Chris DeRosier]

Well, here this week we received about 15 inches from this storm. Now this AM we have lake snow with another 3-6 inches expected. I measured 5" this morning already.

I can't keep up with all this snow, you should see what my yard looks like. Scary!

[Robert Dewey]

Here are the totals from this massive event over MN:

MINNESOTA...

TWO HARBORS..............26.3 INCHES 735 AM EST THU
SILVER BAY...............20.3 INCHES 545 AM EST THU
WOLF RIDGE...............18.7 INCHES 700 AM EST THU
BEAVER BAY...............17.0 INCHES 1058 PM EST WED
BRIMSON..................16.5 INCHES 545 AM EST THU
LAKEWOOD.................14.5 INCHES 1200 AM EST WED
DULUTH NWS...............15.8 INCHES 1200 PM EST THU

They really got hammered... I think they got alot more than what was originally expected...