Decision Tree: Thunderstorms associated with NW TX Dryline

[mikegeukes]

I found the following decision trees on the internet

Decision Tree for Thunderstorms associated with
the Northwest Texas Dryline
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/LBB_checklists/dryln.gif
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/LBB_checklists/tstm.gif

Decision Tree for High Wind in Northwest Texas
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/LBB_checklists/wind.gif

Decision Tree for Snow/Heavy Snow in West Texas
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/LBB_checklists/snow.gif

Mike

[Jeff Snyder]

As expected, some of those are quite old, as noted by the fact that they say to use NGM guidance and that one of them is dated 1989. Not bad as rule-of-thumbs, but I caution (and I think most folks know) not to use them as a solid forecast.

[Brian Stertz]

That decision tree seems to be missing the main player in most dryline events...the EML (cap). I am sure you certainly have to factor that into the dryline storm equation (in most cases). Lately, I have been steering clear of the dryline for just that reason. Mid/late May into early June can be the exception to the rule though. When Texas Panhandle magic is in full swing, sometimes you can trash all of the tried and tested forecast rules, and chasing ideas about dryline supercells.