You want to see blizzard? Check this out...

[Robert Dewey]

Check out the latest 18Z GFS --> http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_850_168m.gif (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_850_168m.gif)

That would be one HELL of a storm... It's down to 989MB, in the deep south no less, at 138HRS. This thing then explodes to 970MB near CLE with very heavy snow over much of MI, spreading back towards Joel and Dan Cook. SFC winds are sustained at nearly 40KNTS with high snow ratios (-10C 850MB isotherm is even peaking in).

It's obviously way out, but this I just wanted to bring this up because this is definitely one of the strongest storms I have seen on the GFS... Regardless of if it verifies or not.

If you're a met fan, you'll definitely understand where I'm coming from -- especially in this boring pattern.

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by rdewey
Check out the latest 18Z GFS --> This thing then explodes to 970MB near CLE with very heavy snow over much of MI, spreading back towards Joel and Dan Cook. SFC winds are sustained at nearly 40KNTS with high snow ratios (-10C 850MB isotherm is even peaking in).


Instead of using states, towns, etc I think we should refer to all of our locations using known forum member's home location. Just kidding.

Anyway, this is sure in dreamland for me. 180 Hours is a long time. That storm track would indicate another very warm event for the east coast. Seems to me that big events like this always help induce a pattern change (no science behind that, just a hunch).

[Dan Cook]

I hope. :D

[Robert Dewey]

ECMWF has a storm, not NEARLY as deep... But it still hits 989MB-ish, which is pretty respectable.

Then again, by me starting this thread... And Nick Grillo's dancing RonMcDon, I think this storm is dead in the water. :lol:

[Dan Robinson]

The severe potential in the warm sector of such a system would be something to watch. A good dry slot wrapping in there would make things interesting.

[Alex Lamers]

This storm interests me both in the aspects of winter weather and severe weather and the fact that it will be Super Bowl Weekend...in Detroit...which is just a fat SCREAMING target.

Ensemble spreads from the 12Z NCEP run were still pretty substantial which basically means don't count your chickens before the eggs hatch yet.

However there are reasons to be encouraged. First of all, the GFS caught everyone's eye for sure...but other models are on board with the idea of a major low...the question is placement and exact timing. The weekend is pretty safe time estimate but location is still very vague. Here in the Milwaukee area I'm looking at anything from a blizzard to sunny skies.

Should this thing even deepen to the respectable 990mb-ish level of the ECMWF we should be looking at areas receiving substantial winter storm conditions and possibly an outbreak of severe storms and possibly tornadoes in the warm sector. The good news for chasers is that there shouldn't be a lot of lateral movement in the storms but they will be racin north...if in fact they do form.

It definately bears watching but I am still skeptical. Bold 18z runs usually wind up having their solutions moderated. We're lookin at about the Fri 00z or 12z runs for the energy to come on shore...so until then look for a lot of flip floppin.

[Robert Dewey]

Alex... Another thing to note is that the GFS has been nearly consistant over the past 4 days with this system. This storm was showing up in the lower resolution at +240HRS, and kept consistancy 'til about 180HRS... It backed off a bit, but the past 3 runs or so have show some great potential.

The GFS has been very consistant, and even the GGEM was showing a very intense system durint the past run (gone now on the 12Z)...

I'll be watching -- that would be pretty sweet to see a storm of the intensity the GFS is showing, on the Super Bowl weekend here in DTW.

[Alex Lamers]

Well this 18z run is not quite consistent. It is definately much farther west than previous runs. Most models are on a different track right now (the DGEX has the low off the coast :lol:). But yes, there is a general consistency of a strong low which is why im intrigued...but not expectant.

[Dan Robinson]

Shouldn't have volunteered to host a Super Bowl Party at my house! There will be a moderate/high risk over us on Sunday for sure.

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm eager to chase another good blizzard. Jog west!

[nickgrillo]

Hey hey all, remember that Ronald McDonald has poured a ~150mb thick layer (from the sfc on up) of hot and juicy french fries onto MI and the surrounding vicinity... Preventing any chances for snow making it to the sfc!

<img src=http://www.lincolnlibrary.com/ron.jpg>

Ronald says no to snow...

[Joel Wright]

The new 0Z GFS shows the storm much more progressive. Basically non-existant for all but the far east coast.

This is why I don't even bother looking at model forecasts beyond 72hrs. It's a waste of time.

[Mike Hollingshead]

Nick you should find a doctor and tell him about the abuse you suffered from Ronald as a child. Don't hold that stuff in man. We're here for you....well...somebody probably is.....

[Robert Dewey]

I knew McDonny would return! :lol:

Joel - I agree, but that WAS a pretty picture the GFS had. I'm making it my background right now :D

[Alex Lamers]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
We're lookin at about the Fri 00z or 12z runs for the energy to come on shore...so until then look for a lot of flip floppin.

Here's the first flip. When will the flop be? Any bets? :D

[j_scheerer]

Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
Nick you should find a doctor and tell him about the abuse you suffered from Ronald as a child. Don't hold that stuff in man. We're here for you....well...somebody probably is.....


LMAO!!!


On a semi related note. I hope it snows; my igloo is now just a puddle of mud again.

[Robert Dewey]

BTW... 00Z GGEM now has the storm, last run didn't. There will definitely be some flipping and flopping. But the storm is so far away, there is even a good chance that it may not pan out at all.

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
Nick you should find a doctor and tell him about the abuse you suffered from Ronald as a child. Don't hold that stuff in man. We're here for you....well...somebody probably is.....

Mike, I and the state of MI has a fever, and the only prescription is... More french fries!

<img src=http://www.rageboy.com/images/french-fries.jpg>

Elvira, elvira... Giddy Up Oom Poppa Omm Poppa Mow Mow... Da, la la...

<img src=http://www.fortogden.com/animronaldmacdonald.gif>

[Mike Hollingshead]

Nick, Nick, Nick.......I'm so shocked you aren't a moderator ;)

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
Nick, Nick, Nick.......I'm so shocked you aren't a moderator ;)

That's okay... I moderate the snowfall rates of MI... I have banned all winter storms until they issue an apology for being cold and yucky... :o :lol:

[Robert Dewey]

Nick... Along with the snow chances being removed, the severe weather chances are equally disipated. In winter, you usually don't have one without the other. The people on the south end get a nice outbreak, while people on the north end get a nice snowstorm/blizzard.

So... Not only are you angering the winter enthusiasts (or weather enthusiasts), but now the folks in the south who would have had one hell of an outbreak :wink:

BTW... That's why MI has 4 Great Lakes surrounding it -- they wanted to make sure you had plenty to pick from before you threw yourself in (or someone else does it for you) LOL :lol::D

[Robert Dewey]

It's back on the 12Z run of the GFS...

Weather enthusiasts and storm chasers - rejoice!

Prediction: Gone by the 00Z, again.

[Joel Wright]

Originally posted by rdewey
It's back on the 12Z run of the GFS...

Weather enthusiasts and storm chasers - rejoice!

Prediction: Gone by the 00Z, again.



I like what the 12z GFS shows, but can you back it a few hundred miles west please? :P

[Robert Dewey]

Well, what I DO like is the fact that development appears to take place sooner (at least in the mid levels) at 84-90HRs on the GFS.

The Canadian has backed off since the 00Z run. The 12Z UKMET has development at 72HR in the deep south (I don't get any data beyond that), and the 00Z ECMWF (12Z not in yet) shows EXPLOSIVE development, dipping a low just below 970MB over Ontario Canada (the strongest solution as of so far).

[Joel Wright]

You know, if there is in fact a snowstorm in Detroit Saturday night into Sunday, it will be too bad Ford Field is covered. If it were to snow heavily during that time it could have been one of the most interesting superbowls ever.

Can you imagine how exciting that would be if the superbowl was being played in the midst of a raging blizzard? As long as the snow wasn't too intense I believe they would keep on playing.

Nevertheless, if this storm indeed does impact Detroit that day, tailgaters are going to be in for some fun! 8)

[Robert Dewey]

From DTX:

GFS REALLY DEVELOPS A BOMB OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS UPPER TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEEDLESS TO SAY GFS
DYNAMICS ARE IMPRESSIVE AND QPF SUGGESTING MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW.

LOL... More than a foot of snow, eh? If the GFS/ECMWF fields verified, we'd be looking more along the lines of 18 to +24 with SFC winds gusting up to +55KNTS.

I was talking to my dad, and like he said... The teams will already be in DTW, so the only impact might be fans actually getting to the stadium (southern MI can't really handle anything over a foot... Let alone 2 feet with winds gusting to 60MPH). Either way, with the tickets already sold out, the game would definitely continue.

If I recall, our local news did a story on this very event... The question was "what would happen if we got hit by a winter storm during the Super Bowl?"... Apparently, there are quite a few snow removal services contracted out, capable of handling up 16-18 inches of snow for the event (and remember, that's ONLY for the stadium parking lot and closely surrounded areas -- NOT the many people that are paying $25,000 to rent out houses closer to my location). The other solution would be to call in plow services from other counties, and that would mean it would be quite awhile before they dig out suburban areas like mine.

I hope this happens, it will definitely be interesting to watch the mayhem first hand...

[Alex Lamers]

Originally posted by rdewey
It's back on the 12Z run of the GFS...

Weather enthusiasts and storm chasers - rejoice!

Prediction: Gone by the 00Z, again.

Well I'm glad my flip flopping prediction is still in tact. Will withold comment/prediction on this system except for the conceptuals until the energy gets at least close to the coast.

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Alex Lamers)</div><!--QuoteBegin-rdewey
It's back on the 12Z run of the GFS...

Weather enthusiasts and storm chasers - rejoice!

Prediction: Gone by the 00Z, again.

Well I'm glad my flip flopping prediction is still in tact. Will withold comment/prediction on this system except for the conceptuals until the energy gets at least close to the coast.[/b]

Definitely, but it's okay to dream until then :P

[Tim Gonyo]

rdewey, push some of that storm towards me in SE Wisconsin please.

[j_scheerer]

Originally posted by Tim Gonyo
rdewey, push some of that storm towards me in SE Wisconsin please.

No man. It's gotta come north east through Ontario. I really need to reubild my igloo.

LMAO

[Laura Duchesne]

Hey neighbour! Okay, let it snow in Stratford... but keep it out of Waterloo! :) I prefer this green weather....

[Robert Dewey]

I'm done with this thread until the models can be consistent... It's pretty much gone on the 18Z GFS. IWX did note that the GFS seems to have a sort of "climatology" (or bias) of being real consistent with a system, only for it to disappear around day 4-5, and then reappear when the wave starts to come on shore.

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Laura Duchesne
I prefer this green weather....

Uh... Brown and muddy you mean?? :lol: :wink:

[j_scheerer]

Originally posted by Laura Duchesne
Hey neighbour! Okay, let it snow in Stratford... but keep it out of Waterloo! :) I prefer this green weather....

lol. At least KW has competent plow drivers... Ahh well just drivers in general. lol

[Joel Wright]

Well, right now the GFS is in it's FOW stage, fish out of water. It's flopping just like a fish.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict 45" of snow and 85mph winds for Detroit.

Time will tell if I'm right...

:P

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_mslp.gif (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs132hr_sfc_mslp.gif)

Hmmm I wonder if lake Michigan will lead to enhanced snow in n IN.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...hr120hr132hr144 (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_mslp&hours=hr108hr120hr132hr144)

Jeeeez look at the gulf. Thank god it isn't late April or early May.


If that tracks much further west I might chase it.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_dewp.gif (http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs120hr_sfc_dewp.gif)

I wonder how common it is to have 60+ TDs that far north and inland on the east coast. Definitely a storm to watch.

[Dan Robinson]

Sooo early and pointless to say anything, but I love that moisture tongue right over WV - followed by the freezing line plowing past with several inches of snow behind it. Lightning (at the least) followed by heavy snow the next day. I can't believe I used to get SDS in winter. What was I thinking?

Hopefully this will set up close enough to make a chase out of it less than 2-3 hours away from home.

[rdale]

Two words:

En

Sembles

Note VERY little agreement with the Great Lakes blizzard from the GFS ensembles. And nothing on the EC. And nothing on the 06Z GFS either. I'm thinking this hype based on a few model runs out of dozens that say "no" may come to bite a few ;>

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
Two words:

En

Sembles

Note VERY little agreement with the Great Lakes blizzard from the GFS ensembles. And nothing on the EC. And nothing on the 06Z GFS either. I'm thinking this hype based on a few model runs out of dozens that say "no" may come to bite a few ;>

Ah... But even when there IS agreement, things don't usually occur. How many times this winter has the ensembles (at day 4/5) been in excellent agreement, only for them to be completely wrong?

If I see a storm system appear on more than 3 or 4 model runs, and more than one model, I give it at least SOME chance regardless of ensembles.

As of right now though, the system is nearly non-existant on the models...

[rdale]

"How many times this winter has the ensembles (at day 4/5) been in excellent agreement"

You have to add the other models though... I've seen GFS ensembles match up, but if the EC/GEM/etc say "no" it's still something I'd be hesitant to blow a horn for. If GFS ENS matches up well, and the other globals are also in the 'hood, it's usually a good bet something will happen.

[Robert Dewey]

I'm gonna bump this thread back up, because I still think something is going to happen. The GEM and NAM (both 00Z and 12Z runs) are still showing things west of the Apps. The GFS was weak a few runs ago (in respect to ANY development - coastal or not), but has been getting progressively stronger, which would support a further west track.

I think the "day 4-5 disappearing act" might be over.

Then again, the NAM hasn't been known to be correct -- could this be a first?

[brody_clifton]

Im really hoping this morning's 84 hr NAM output valid 12Z Saturday will verify, with a 994 surface low over northern Georgia and the 500mb trough deepening into a negative tilt over the southern Apps. That scenario would probably lead to severe northern FL through NC with frozen precip from the cental Apps and points northward. Also, given that surface lows normally deepen when they leave the Mid Atlantic region, a 994mb system Saturday morning could become a major storm by the time it reaches the northeast.

Local NWS has mentioned a pattern change on the way, lasting at least a couple weeks, with deep troughing, NW flow aloft, and below normal temps in the eastern US. I think a change in the pattern (no more zonal flow with embedded SW's for a period) sounds reasonable. It is February and we really have not had much of a winter so far (at least in eastern NC). The Feb. 3-4 system may be the last one to do much at all in terms of strong convection or significant snows. So I'm crossing my fingers that the NAM is on target with this one. Last night's GFS also indicated a strong 995 mb surface low in the SE US - but displaced about 500 miles east of and reaching that intensity about 24 hours later than the NAM's solution.

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, the GFS has been slowly trending westward and deeper with the upper level trough, but is still pretty far east. To tell you the truth, if all the models were in agreement at 84 hours, I'd be kind of nervous because that's usually when things DON'T happen.

Anyway, the 12Z UKMET is more along the lines of the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF looks really odd -- it has a weak low (1000MB) tracking through western lower MI... On the other hand, the 00Z ECMWF was more along the lines of the 12Z NAM.

The GEM is kind of in between... Much weaker, but still west of the Apps.

But, the fact that the NAM looks exactly like the GFS did about 6 runs ago is interesting.

[rdale]

"the 12Z ECMWF looks really odd -- it has a weak low (1000MB) tracking through western lower MI"

Are you looking at the right data? Today's the first run of the "new and improved" EC, maybe your site got messed up ;>

12Z Fri it has a 998 low near Pittsburgh, which it takes off into Canada by 12Z Sat, then shows a 997mb low southeast of NYC at 12Z Sunday with nothing at all over MI.

edit - the 12Z UKMET looks whacked with the low over MI, maybe that's what you pulled up? I never give the UK much weight in the first place...

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
"the 12Z ECMWF looks really odd -- it has a weak low (1000MB) tracking through western lower MI"

Are you looking at the right data? Today's the first run of the "new and improved" EC, maybe your site got messed up ;>

12Z Fri it has a 998 low near Pittsburgh, which it takes off into Canada by 12Z Sat, then shows a 997mb low southeast of NYC at 12Z Sunday with nothing at all over MI.

edit - the 12Z UKMET looks whacked with the low over MI, maybe that's what you pulled up? I never give the UK much weight in the first place...

Yeah, it was the UKMET that I was looking at. The 18Z NAM has trended towards the GFS, making more confident in a coastal low. But with the upper level jet and shortwave still off the coast, I'll keep a little bit of skepticism.

[brody_clifton]

This is a bit off target from the thread title, but if you haven't yet check out today's 12Z NAM 66hr 0-1km EHI over parts of the central and eastern FL panhandle. Upwards of 6, yikes! And valid for 2am, hope that scenario does not verify.

[Robert Dewey]

Interesting... 18Z NAM has trended about 100 miles further west than the 00Z NAM (and 06Z, 12Z NAM runs). 12Z GFS also made an abrupt change and is now the farthest west (versus the farthest east), with the RGEM also on board.

Looks like this storm may not be dead afterall... Glad I kept at least some hope alive.

[Robert Dewey]

EDIT: Wow, 18Z GFS has trended back towards a monster, easily reaching the requirements for a meteorological bomb.

I'm liking these trends alot. Almost 1.25 inches at my location with very cold temperatures... Looks like a ratio of 15 to 1 if the thermal profile verified. To top it off, the pressure gradient is very strong with +50KNTS in the low levels. The rate of deepening would also suggest pretty high pressure fall/rise couplet. We would definitely be talking about a blizzard (potentially a "severe" blizzard)...

But... I think we should at least wait until the models can agree on something :lol:

[Dan Cook]

Nothing for me. :cry:

[Robert Dewey]

00Z's still trending westward... Looks like the 12Z and 18Z data underestimated the strength of that upper level jet quite a bit. The stronger the upper level jet is, the farther west that system will wrap up.

I'm going to bet on the SFC low ending up between CLE and the PA boarder. I really think this will be a monster.

[mikegeukes]

Wright-Weather Forum a perfect site for snowlovers. LOL

Mike

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, I don't care to join though. I hear the noise ratio is pretty high. Plus, we have plenty of snow lovers here... Are you seeing anything interesting on Wright Weather though? Any link?

[Glenn Rivers]

Have my fingers crossed. I first noticed this storm on the GFS a few days ago, only to see this storm disapear all together. Here at the West end of Lake Ontario, looking for snow, even on North-facing wooded slopes, is just about as hard as prospecting for gold. I was thrilled to see this storm re-apear over the last 24 hours in some form or another on almost every model...GEM(GLOB),GEM(REG),UKMET,ECMRF,NAM(eta),GF S,MM5.

It was a bit of a drag that on tonight's runs the GEM models, even the REG were weaker and further east. One thing that I have noticed is that the last few RUC runs show a stronger 500mb jet plunging down behind the positively tilted short wave over TX. I am hoping this may mean more digging, negetive tilting, and a more wraped up and further W track of the surface low. the HPC people and the latest GFS output suggest about 2 inches of pricip for me. If even half of the precip falls as snow with a 10/1 snow/water ratio, this could be an impresive snow-storm were I am located.

[Robert Dewey]

Well, 12Z NAM is a bit further west but weaker. This doesn't make sense - they upper level jet and shortwave are stronger on this run.

The latest RGEM is on board with a significant westward trend compared to the 00Z models and now paints a healthy 974MB low over Ontario with nearly 2 inches of QPF into the cold air (where snow ratios are at least 12 to 1). This thing will not only be tapping Gulf moisture, but also a feed from the Atlantic... In addition, the very cold thermal profile easily suggests snowfall with a decent ratio, at least over here in Super Bowl Land.

I'm still thinking this is going to be a monster of a storm, possibly one of the strongest winter storms in quite some time over this area. The models are just now picking up on this, and continue to get stronger with each run (with the exception of the latest NAM).

Needless to say, I am pretty excited... Definitely need a quick cure for SDS.

[Robert Dewey]

After looking at the rest of the data and seeing the continuing trends, I'm thinking the 850MB low will track towards CLE, or possibly a bit further west. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that this thing will end up at around 980MB over southern Ontario Canada, as I still think the models are underestimating the jet diving into the southwest just a hair...

This thing looks like it really slows down too, so any heavy snowfall will be prolonged.

[Robert Dewey]

Winter Storm Watches going up... Also, something potentially very interesting...

SFC data down south indicates SFC pressure already as low as 1002MB, or about 6MB's deeper than even the GFS. In addition, several METAR stations are reporting wind gusts as high as 35KNTS. Also, a baroclinic leaf signature is evident on the WV loop indicating that cyclogenesis has started.

The RUC seems to be handling things a bit better as far as the SFC pattern is concerned.

These are all signs that would seem to point towards a stronger and further west solution.

I'll update my personal little blog a bit later :lol:

[rdale]

48hr RUC though keeps all good snows out of MI... If I could get at least the NAM or RUC onboard I'd be much more confident, but that's not happening. Yet.

[Joel Wright]

Flurries for Illinois and Iowa.


Enjoy guys out east.

[j_scheerer]

Well the winter storm watches are up for all of Southern Ontario.

[Dan Robinson]

Here comes the blue starting to fill in across the NWS county map. Unfortunately I think the only real fun is going to be in the mountains and farther north. Likely just another borderline freezing event here in CRW, wet snow all day with no accumulation and maybe some slush on the grass. Thankfully all I have to do is drive 45 minutes east and I'm 2,500-3,000 feet up, and well below freezing for most of the event. I wish I could actually stay home for once to enjoy one of these things!

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
48hr RUC though keeps all good snows out of MI... If I could get at least the NAM or RUC onboard I'd be much more confident, but that's not happening. Yet.

Don't look now, but the 00Z NAM is even stronger and further west than the 12Z/18Z GFS. Looks like a line east of Port Huron to Ann Arbor is going to get wasted with high winds (NAM progs 30KNT sustained) and very heavy snow. This thing will be moving S-L-O-W once it deepens to about 980MB or so.

[j_scheerer]

Isn't Port Huron a border city?

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by j_scheerer
Isn't Port Huron a border city?

Yes it is, with Ontario. I'm pretty close to Lake St. Claire myself (well, about 10 miles away)... Why? Are you close to that location, on the "other side"?

[Robert Dewey]

This is just amazing. The 00Z GEM on board with a 977MB low, identical to the NAM. If this happens, I would expect quite the blizzard for areas just west of the 850MB low track. In fact, this may be one of the worst blizzards to affect this area in that past 30 years.

Detroit's 24 hour record snowfall comes in at exactly two feet... Don't know if that's in jeopardy or not, but the Blizzard of 1999 did lay down 12-18 inches towards that area and wasn't nearly as deep or slow moving.

Maybe I am just over hyping, but I've never been on the northwest side of a 975-980MB bomb in February, with snow the main precipitation type.

[j_scheerer]

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div><!--QuoteBegin-j_scheerer
Isn't Port Huron a border city?

Yes it is, with Ontario. I'm pretty close to Lake St. Claire myself (well, about 10 miles away)... Why? Are you close to that location, on the "other side"?[/b]

No no. I'm about 2 hours north east of Sarnia.

[Michael Auker]

This strikes me as one of those developing weather situations that end up being worse than forecasted. I expect the low to track even further west than 00z NAM shows...Indiana and the Lower Great Lakes will get blasted, IMHO. Of course, I expect mainly rain at my location...just maybe some back-lash snows.

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Michael Auker
This strikes me as one of those developing weather situations that end up being worse than forecasted.

That might be the case. This thing already looks good on the WV and NOWRAD loop... GFS has just beefed up QPF towards 1.35 inches for my area, and 1.50 around Port Huron. Snow to liquid ratios always give me a hard time, but the profile looks like it's pretty cold, so I'm going to say 15 to 1 (powder).

Either way, a 15 to 1 with the GFS puts my location up near 20 inches, with Port Huron seeing around 22-24 inches. This would be true if we took the QPF grid values and assumed they were 100% true, which they probably aren't. Though, I would imagine if the storm is as deep as progged, and trends continue... Someone might be looking at +24 inch snowstorm. That's a far cry from what actual forecasts have out, but it's also not the most climatological forecast (our typical "big" snowstorm is 8-10 inches, 12 inches tops). So I can definitely see the hesitation. They usually wait for the event to actually start unfolding before beefing up snow totals, to kind of narrow it down better.

Haven't looked at cross sections or static stability, so I'm not sure about thundersnow chances or perhaps banding to further enhance snowfall totals slightly.

As for the wind aspect, things should easily meet blizzard criteria of 35MPH, with gusts more likely to hit or exceed 45MPH. The duration of the event is roughly 18 hours of rather intense snowfall, then forcing and mid level moisture begin to strip away around noon on Sunday.

Anyway, they have 300 people with shovels on standby for the Super Bowl... Hope they have fun :lol:

[Joel Wright]

Well, a nice shield of precip is rappidly expanding towards MI. Looks like Detroit is really going to get it, especially early tonight. I think the big winner will be a hundred miles or more north of DTX. Detroit should still end up with a solid 7-9" though. Normally with the surface low passing so close I'd be concerned about rain trying to mix back in later on as the warm bubble near the low passes, but that doesn't look to be an issue with this storm. If this storm slows down at all, and decides to stick around a bit longer; that bullseye could very well be closer to Detroit. I wouldn't put it in a forecast, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 12-14" reports near Detroit for any areas that get stuck under some "bonus bands."


Damn you Dewey, I told you to back this storm up a few hundred miles west! :cry: :P

[Robert Dewey]

Damn you Dewey, I told you to back this storm up a few hundred miles west! :cry: :P

Heh, oops... With the way this winter is, I take what I can get :lol:

Anyway, 06Z models were a touch further west and a bit stronger (about 4MB on the NAM). QPF still up around 1.35 inches, or slightly higher for my area. I'm roughly 40 miles straight north of Detroit. It wouldn't surprise me if most of the warning area north of Detroit is switched to a blizzard warning. Each model run shows this thing being slightly more intense... Wind is definitely going to be a problem.

I expect this storm to slow slightly more than what is currently forecast, but this thing will already be moving slow. The AFD for TAFS mentions 14-18 hours of HVY snow, I could see this being closer to the 18 hours. Even if we managed one inch per hour for 8-12 hours, and then half inch per hour for the rest of the period, you're talking 11-15 inches. But, I expect at least a couple hours of +2 inch rates with this much forcing, the bombogenesis, and low static stability. This storm is more along the lines of a nor'easter over land... It's kind of rare to see low pressure getting down to sub 980MB this far south and over land (i.e. it's not a monthly event, or even bi-monthly event).

One thing I did notice is that on the NAM, the dry slot comes very close...

[Dan Robinson]

I'm sitting here watching the east side of the center of the low graze me. Boring steady rain outside now. I was hoping with such a bombing low that being near the center would have at least brought some lightning. Still very much on the warm side of things in the mid 50s. We just aren't going to see anything with this until late tonight after it's been below freezing for a while. And even then it will not be much. Mountains are even further on the warm side, so they aren't going to see anything notable. The exception is of course up north. Par for the course this year!

[Robert Dewey]

A "bright band" is moving overhead right now, getting a rain snow mix. That band appears to be almost stationary.

The RUC has the best initialization, and I am going to rely on that model from this point forward. As DTX noted, the NAM/GFS initialized things a bit too far west... But the RUC does end up with a further west SFC low and 850MB low track. If the RUC were to be correct, my area would see roughly 2-3 inches per hour for 6 hours, with ~1 inch per hour accums. enveloping. That's in addition to sustained 25-30KNT winds (blizzard criteria). Winds already picking up a bit... But, that's not until a bit later.

I just hope this rain changes over real quick and doesn't drag on... And I also hope the RUC is dead on, and the low doesn't track any further west. It's slated to pass very near Lake St. Claire, and being at the center of the low would bring in some warmer air AND cut down on wind potential...

[Robert Dewey]

Wow, just wanted to update... We are getting some HUGE flakes - a little larger than quarter size, mixed in with the rain.

[Robert Dewey]

All snow for the past 30 minutes, now coming down moderately with visibility around 1/2 mile. Starting to accumulate on the ground, with a very slushy accumulation (about 1/10th of an inch) on a few elevated surfaces.

EDIT: It's coming down hard. Ground is now white, flakes are HUGE. Visibility is definitely less than 1/2 mile. I'm surprised, quite a few stations around me still reporting rain.

[rdale]

I dunno - still a Winter Storm Warning for 6+ inches in Detroit, just updated, but I can't see how in the world that's going to happen (especially with 0" being reported so far.)

[Robert Dewey]

I dunno - still a Winter Storm Warning for 6+ inches in Detroit, just updated, but I can't see how in the world that's going to happen (especially with 0" being reported so far.)

Detroit is pretty farth south of that main band. It's snowing at about 2 inches per hour here now... Visibility is down to about 1/4 mile. It's getting pretty bad. If this band were to stall out, I could easily see warning criteria NORTH of Detroit.

[rdale]

My office just issued two products for me at the same time - one says up to a half-inch by midnight, the other says 1-4" overnight. Gotta believe if #1 is true, there's no WAY #2 will be true based on current radar & forecasts...

[Robert Dewey]

We got about 3.5 inches here... That main axis of heavy snow seems to be tapering somewhat. DTW definitely won't see warning criteria. We will probably be looking at 5 inches tops over here where I am by 10am tomorrow.

What happened to this storm? Not enough true arctic air available, or what? This thing seems like it definitely had more than enough potential to lay down a HEAVY swatch of snow, considering it's stronger than Jan 2 1999 (which put down +18 inches). I'm guessing the rain at the beginning, combined with the warm layer in the first 500-1000FT really dropped snow ratios. I would have thought this system would have sucked down colder air being as deep as it is.

[rdale]

"Not enough true arctic air available, or what?"

That would be my guess... After last night's run I thought I was going to have to eat some MEGA crow after downplaying this all week, but I'll take the positive verification instead (even if it came for the wrong reason!)

[Robert Dewey]

Do I spot gravity waves on DTX L2 NEXRAD? Or is that slantwise convection? They are equally spaced and moving southwestward pretty quickly.

[rdale]

I've been watching them on GRR all night - can't imagine that's convection and seems to be way too many for gravity waves.

[Joel Wright]

Not a bad snow for you guys, but not as much as I thought you'd get either. It looks like there were some pretty intense banding earlier, but they seemed to move around too much to give any one area a lot of heavy snow. I was also quite surprised the rain persisted as long as it did in many areas.

I was pretty confident this morning someone not too far from Detroit would get a foot of snow, now that looks like a long shot. Except maybe up in the thumb.

You guys should be happy though, as most of the rest of us in the country are bored out of our minds with weatherless weather...

[Robert Dewey]

Not a bad snow for you guys, but not as much as I thought you'd get either. It looks like there were some pretty intense banding earlier, but they seemed to move around too much to give any one area a lot of heavy snow. I was also quite surprised the rain persisted as long as it did in many areas.

I was pretty confident this morning someone not too far from Detroit would get a foot of snow, now that looks like a long shot. Except maybe up in the thumb.

You guys should be happy though, as most of the rest of us in the country are bored out of our minds with weatherless weather...

Well, I *would* be happy, but winds are now gusting up around 35-40MPH, and it just reminds me of how much of a waste this storm was (or how nice of a blizzard it would have been). This is probably the last time I'll be on the cold and snowy side of a 980-985MB bomb for quite some time... Unless this upcomming amplified pattern can produce something :roll:

[nickgrillo]

Well, I wouldn't call today "weather-ful"...

If you enjoy walking through crap slushy alleys (at work earlier) amidst already grossly freezing temperatures, then yeah -- today was the day to bow to Mama Nature. I certainly enjoy extreme winds... But this freezing weather with 1-3" inches of snow (a foot, even) sucks to beyond compare. I'd rather have georgous, warm temperatures (these past few weeks have been pretty damn good) and wear t-shirts, then be tracking through this junk. Well, we're now heading into weeks of misery (with high temps averaging 20-30F)... Joy!

I have plenty of activities to do then to worry about chasing severe storms... But, this crap weather affects my lifestyle to an extreme extent.

[Robert Dewey]

Well, I wouldn't call today "weather-ful"...

If you enjoy walking through crap slushy alleys (at work earlier) amidst already grossly freezing temperatures, then yeah -- today was the day to bow to Mama Nature. I certainly enjoy extreme winds... But this freezing weather with 1-3" inches of snow (a foot, even) sucks to beyond compare. I'd rather have georgous, warm temperatures (these past few weeks have been pretty damn good) and wear t-shirts, then be tracking through this junk. Well, we're now heading into weeks of misery (with high temps averaging 20-30F)... Joy!

I agree (although, I usually drive, LOL)...

If we aren't going to get anything good, then it might as well be sunny and 85F out. What I mean by good is at least 10 inches, or an ice storm with at least half an inch. Basically, anything which will disrupt mankind LOL

So, chalk this one up as another could-have-been winter storm...

All I will say is that we better have a good winter storm sometime during this next arctic blast to make it worth it, AND adding to my list of demands - we better have a damn active spring and summer severe weather-wise.

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Last time i check, around 1am or so, i had 7 inches on the ground. Transformers were blowing and limbs are coming down, one took out my cable so no tv for me. Why the obs. from the airport say overcast is beyond me, because i can tell you there is snow falling, vis. around one mile or less.