NOAA SAYS LA NIÑA HERE AS PREDICTED

[mikegeukes]

NOAA SAYS LA NIÑA HERE AS PREDICTED
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2572.htm

Mike

[Scott A. Kampas]

More crap media reporting out of the AMS meeting, though not nearly so bad:

La Nina's return threatens more hurricanes

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/02/02/nina...a.ap/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/02/02/nina.ap/index.html)

[mikegeukes]

Post your comments here, since one is now locked.

Mike

[Michael Auker]

I checked out the SOI Index archives in an effort to identify some more historic El Nino/La Nina's which might correlate to major midwest tornado outbreaks. It is probably not the best method to identify weak ENSO periods...though strongly positive/negative values sustained over a period of time probably should highlight stronger episodes of ENSO. Some memorable Midwest tornado outbreaks that might have occured during La Nina were March 27, 1890, March 23, 1917, May 26-30, 1917, and March 18, 1925. 1917 was a very violent year for tornadoes, according to the "big green book". It also featured sky-high SOI values. However, 1920, which featured the blockbuster March 28 Midwest outbreak (a forgotten outbreak?) and a violent April Alabama-Mississippi outbreak, was possibly an El Nino year. March 16, 1942 was also likely an El Nino outbreak. Check out SOI values back to 1876 here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

[Tony Laubach]

Here is a good publication on tornadoes and the nino/nana cycles...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/schae...fer/el_nino.htm (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/schaefer/el_nino.htm)

[Marc Austin]

I sure hope things don't fall apart this spring because of La Nina, I know that there should be an increase in Tropical activity, if that's possible. I can't help but feel a little apprehensive about the 2006 chase season.

[Fred Gossage]

I sure hope things don't fall apart this spring because of La Nina, I know that there should be an increase in Tropical activity, if that's possible. I can't help but feel a little apprehensive about the 2006 chase season.

I stated this in the locked thread....and I'll state it in here, incase anyone missued it.....

The Palm Sunday 1965 Tornado Outbreak, the May 3, 1999 Tornado Outbreak, and the SuperOutbreak of 1974......ALL occurred within or coming out of La Nina episodes. These were three of the worst tornado outbreaks in our nation's history......

[Marc Austin]

Fred, thanks for that tid-bit of info. I had no idea that those events occured during La Nina years. I guess there's no real way to tell exactly how this chase season is going to turn out... we shall see. What are your thoughts on the enhancement of Tropical activity as to the nature of last season? Do you think it could possibly be even more active? I can't imagine!

[David Wolfson]

Found this great link to the latest ENSO and near-term climate skinny: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...s-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)
The way I read it is the rather weak El Nino has about bottomed and will be returning to near neutral into the summer.

[John MacKay]

I do remember how quiet the 1998 season was in KS (one meteorologist in the Wichita area could not remember a more quiet spring). That season was a lot like last year in the amount of busts. In 1998, there were maybe as many as five tornado watches that were completely dry, all because of the strong cap in place that spring. 1999, on the other hand, was an active year.

We know you had to be a dedicated chaser to keep plugging away last year (an even more frustrating year that 1998 in KS). That is why many are anticipating this season to be an active one (probably not 2004, but some nice opportunities should present themselves).