GFS: Winter storm by 10/13

[Dan Robinson]

Quite the Canadian low shaping up on the GFS for next week, bringing late November to the Plains and Midwest. This will be interesting to watch.

http://wvlightning.com/2006/octsnow3.jpg

http://wvlightning.com/2006/octsnow1.jpg

http://wvlightning.com/2006/octsnow2.jpg

[Danny Neal]

i agree i was watching WGN news at noon and tom skilling (one of the only tv meteorologist whose opinion i respect) said by late next week the models were predicting snow flurries for chicagoland and i was like what you must be crazy it was 80 degrees the other day and in the 70s coming up this weekend, but he said the temperatures all the way in the northern frontier have plummeted to 9 below so something is coming down the tracks, i just hope chicago isnt in the way because i hate winter weather!!!!

[Jeff Snyder]

Very interesting indeed! That GFS forecast from this mornign indicates that potential for the first frost of the season for a very large chunk of the central and eastern US... It looks like the first frost of the fall could be a few weeks ahead of schedule for many of the locales south of I70 if this pans out. Of course, this is a highly anomous event (HPS mentions that 500mb heights are over 4 standard deviations below the mean over the northcentral US next week!), and ensemble spread is pretty high. But hey, at least it's something different and exciting!

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_168.gif

12z ecmwf looks similar/cold too.

[HAltschule]

522 Thicknesses into New York already? Yuck. Looks like post-Fropa will contain snow showers in the Northeast and New England...not to mention significant Lake Effect Snows off of Lake Ontario if this verifies.

[Bob Schafer]

There is a slight possibility of some wintery weather that you can see on TV even before then: Monday.

Bronco's fans (and CO ski areas!) are keeping one eye on the forecast for the MNF contest vs. the Ravens. The temp is progged to only dip into the 40's for the game, but (upslope) precip is also in the cards. The ski areas would go nuts with reservations if it turns into a big snow event in Denver during the game, as famously happened some years ago.

[Joel Wright]

Definitely will have to watch the next few runs. If they hold true, many of us will see our first snow flakes!! :)

[Mike Smith]

How about 510 thicknesses over OMA Thursday morning at 12Z?! See 12Z GFS.

[Dan Robinson]

If these models are even close to being right, this is going to be a *fun* week. Warm sector severe looks like a good possibility on Thursday - look at those 60F+ dews in the Ohio Valley out ahead of this. All followed by freezing temps and snow all the way down the Appalachians into North Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia on Friday.

[Robert Dewey]

This does look like a fairly good system - hopefully it can hold its strength. GFS would indicate a good outbreak of severe weather in the warm sector, some heavy wet snow on the northwest side, and a nice wind storm following frontal passage with cold air rushing in.

[mikegeukes]

A tv station weather blog mentions that GFS Bufkit is forecasting
7 inches of snow for Grand Rapids, Michigan starting next Thursday
evening.

Mike

[rdale]

A tv station weather blog mentions that GFS Bufkit is forecasting
7 inches of snow for Grand Rapids, Michigan starting next Thursday
evening.


That must have been the 12Z run, the 06Z had a few flurries (which shows you how unusable specifics are for now...)

[Brian Stertz]

Have to wonder about maybe some heavy lake effect snow for W. Lower Michigan if that GFS update is anywhere close to verifying. Wow

[Danny Neal]

wow just checked out the forecast for next week for my area......wednesday 65 with scattered T storms thursday mostly cloudy 44 a 21 degree job in a day, its not HUGE but i think maybe wednesday could be a decent svr weather day as of right now probably wont be but wishful thinking

[Joel Wright]

This is truly incredible considering we (Moline) just set an all time October maximum temperature at 95° last Tuesday.

What an incredible swing in weather.

[mikegeukes]

Local TV Station in Grand Rapids, Michigan on their web blog
mentions the 00Z GFS Bufkit gives Grand Rapids 12 inches of
snow, starting next Thursday.

Mike

[Mark Farnik]

If the GFS were to pan out, eastern CO would be seeing subzero temperatures and a blinding snowstorm Wednesday night!:eek: That would be a drastic change after the unseasonably warm weather we've been experiencing as of late. This would be devastating if it occured, because such a drastic temperature swing would kill many trees (for all you CO ST'ers, think something worse than the "Tree Killer" freeze in late October of 1991), ruin the millet crop, and kill off the entire winter wheat and triticale crop, which was planted about a month to two weeks ago and has already started to sprout because of the unseasonably warm weather. I doubt anything this drastic and dramatic will happen, but BOU is calling for a hard freeze and a light accumulation (on the order of an inch or so) for lower elevations of eastern CO Wednesday night and maybe a couple inches in the foothills. My dad is scrambling to get his millet crop picked up, because those kind of temperatures and the snow would ruin it, and he actually has a good stand (he thinks it will make 30 bushels to the acre this year for the first time in six years.) I just hope and pray that the scenario the GFS is depicting does not come to pass; because if it does, a lot of farmers, including my dad, are no longer going to be farming because there would be no crop to harvest next summer.
And plus, I'm just not ready to deal with a blizzard accompanied by bone ass cold subzero temps with windchills far nastier than that in the middle of October. If this kind of weather would hold off for another month or so, that would be FINE with me!:cool:
Shifting focus, I think with the potential intensity of and insane temperature difference on either side of this system, I too believe the eastern Midwest/Ohio Valley could see a nasty severe wx outbreak in the warm sector Thursday.
if this is a prelude to winter, this winter is going to be a real b***h.:mad:

[rdale]

" if this is a prelude to winter, this winter is going to be a real b***h."

We said that last year when December was very cold and stormy. Then Jan/Feb were very warm and dry. Never seems to work ;>

[Tony Laubach]

Definately looks like a cold snap in the works for around here in Colorado, but definately not the end of the world scenario by any means. As strange as this may sound, I'm sure farmers in CO have seen something like this before... just a hunch. Models have temps getting quite cold over most of Northern Colorado, and unfortunately snow won't be the main story with this. We should see our first flakes at the very least, but definately nothing to get terribly excited about.

I'm looking forward to the cold snap as I am one who *****ed about the summer heat more than anyone. However, I will admit to enjoying the aspect of a downslope wind which makes a breezy night here very beautiful as was the case last night and early this morning.

None-the-less, fun stuff in store for us! I so enjoy the cooler season and am very much awaiting with open arms this cold embrace!

[Warren Eckels]

This is the GFS model, which is sometimes prone to overexaggerating the depth and extent of cold outbreaks several days out. This is a good excuse, though, to check oil, get snowblowers repaired, cover the AC, and so on.

[Jeff Miller]

It may be the GFS model, but we need to look at it with a little interest now. There are some indications of a possible winter storm event for the central Plains and the upper Great Lakes *if* the GFS can be aligned and *IF* other models can come into agreement and also *IF* the strength of the cold air is not being overrexagerated.

If we look at the 12z run, we see a picture painted of potential minor winter storm conditions from Southcentral Nebraska ENE to around Omaha and REALLY wrapping up to major winter storm conditions SE Missouri to Northern Illinois at the 120 with high QPF and low thicknesses supporting snow as low pressure really wraps up near Chicago, then major winter storm conditions Northeast to Northern Lower Michigan.

Again, this is ONLY if GFS is to be believed and historically, I would simply watch and wait and in my personal opinion, watch this solution fizzle. ;)

[Joel Wright]

Starting to look like a very strong blast of early season cold air now. The GFS is coming more in line with other models. It still develops a second low down south on the leading edge of the cold push, but keeps pushing it back in time. Initially it had the second low tracking through eastern IL. Now it's way out east in PA. That trend will probably continue, so you folks in Ohio and western PA shouldn't get excited about accumulating snow just yet.

It does look like the main low will be very strong just north of the lakes, and may rotate some weak waves around it which may squeeze out the first flurries and snow showers of the year for a lot of us.

[Robert Dewey]

There are some pretty good differences in position and intensity at FH84 between the 12Z NAM and GFS. This run of the GFS really bombs out the system after FH84, but pretty far north. NAM is stronger and further east at FH84, while the GFS is holding back about 200-300 miles further west.

I'm hoping for a solution between the GFS and the NAM, or pretty similar to the 06Z GFS. Dynamics would point towards a strongly forced low-topped convective event, but sfc based moisture doesn't really move in that quick, and instability is really low, even for a purely forced event (though I've seen it happen). If this thing can become a synoptic scale monster / bomb near the UP of Michigan or Lake Superior, I'd venture to say we would be looking at a rather widespread and significant windstorm (not to mention snow and/or blizzard conditions for lake effect areas in the UP). I know those storms last November were pretty rough on the trees, and that was without leaves. Most of the trees here are still quite green and leafy.

That one run of the GFS with the 968mb low over Lake Superior would have done the trick... Can anyone say frequent hurricane force wind gusts?

[Dan Robinson]

The last few runs indicate a good chance of a few inches down the Appalachians Friday and Saturday. Not too surprising, since our first snow last year was on October 25. A definate photo op as the leaves have just begun to change.

I'm torn between staying here for that, or going up to the Erie/Buffalo area for a lake-effect thundersnow chase.

[Justin Turcotte]

I'll be putting the MNDoT and WisDot forecast togther again in the moning so I'll have a blast (not!). I'm worried about some wind gusts potentially exceeding 60 mph in MN if the NAM pans out. Anyone ever seen a -35C H50 cold core of death in early October. The air aloft is so bloody cold and the lakes so warm that my point sounding for lunchtime Wed near Lake Winnipeg had over 1000 J/kg CAPE (add some sarcasm...throw in the 200 helicity advertised from frictional convergence and we can have some snowpercells). All of my Collier lake effect indicies are in the extreme range. The caviat is the wicked winds will not have much time to pick up moisture but this should be offset by the convective energy. Lapse rates on land alone will be plenty to generate scattered snow bursts Wed and Thurs.

I'd hate to be on one of them iron ore freighters...

"The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
of the big lake they called "Gitche Gumee."
The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
when the skies of November turn gloomy.
With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more
than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty,
that good ship and true was a bone to be chewed
when the "Gales of November" came early."

[Karen Politte]

That weather had better not DARE come anywhere near me here in central AR......if it does......it'll be getting chased! :D

Can't wait to see the results of this system if it pans out as promised. Even given the likelihood of us missing it here - it will be fun to see all of the news reporters lolloping around in the snow elsewhere on television.

The Appalachians - isn't that where those back-door cold fronts come down? They sure seem to light-up with winter precip on the 10/10 0Z GFS run this morning. Fingers crossed for an early frost and a quick end to those incessant crickets and biting-things! I truly can-NOT wait. Winter beckons......and it's my all-time favourite season!

KL

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Here in KC we will should get our first freeze of the year.
It is right on schedule based on averages. No snow yet though.

[mikegeukes]

NWS Marquette MI just issued a Winter Storm Warning
have fun Rocky, 1 to 2 feet of snow is predicted.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMQT/0610102046.wwus43.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMQT/0610102030.fxus63.html

[Gerrit Gulden]

Woke up this morning and everything was Frosted, grass, roofs, plants. Its getting cold here in Southeast Idaho. No talk yet of snow tho. Small disturbance this monday but Models arent indicating much moisture yet.

-gerrit

[mikegeukes]

Grand Rappids Michigan received 1.4 inches according to
tv station blog, and this was the earliest a inch of snow
or more fell for the snow season.

Mike

[Josh Richardson]

We woke up here to a blanket of snow, suprised we received any accumulation at all. Just enough to cover the cars and the grass.

[Laura Duchesne]

Here in southern Ontario, there have been lake effect snowsqualls on and off all day today, and expected to continue into Friday. It would create a dusting on things, but would melt fairly quickly in between squalls. Areas north of here received a bit of accumulation from what I gather. Hope this isn't a sign of a bad winter coming!

[Joel Wright]

We had just a few very light flurries a few times earlier today. This evening though we had a decent snow shower come through and lasted long enough to briefly dust the grass and car tops.

[Paul Townsend]

In eastern Wisconsin we got nothing more than graupel/snow flurry showers Wednesday evening and snow showers on Thursday, from the first couple of shortwaves. No accumulation and the melted snow that fell didn't even produce any wetness. The main event with this storm has been the record breaking cold and disgusting windchills so early. The low at my place this morning was 26, which wasn't even a daily record low for my period of record (1984 - Present), let alone a long term climate base. However the high of 36 shattered my daily coldest high temperature as well as beating the long term database record cold high for the date. In my period of record, this tied for the 2nd coldest October high (34 on Oct 31, 1996 and 36 on Oct 26, 1997). But this is fine....get the cold weather out of the way really early in the cold season. ;)

[Dan Robinson]

Here in the Appalachians, we're getting the cold temperatures we needed but not the precip. I was holding out hope that upslope would kick off something for us tonight, but the flow is refusing to turn northerly or even WNW. So far all of the models concur with us having a clear-sky frost/freeze. Columbus is getting a nice band which didn't show up on most of the model progs, but I don't think we'll see anything getting any closer than that.

[Robert Dewey]

We had some very heavy squall activity here today. One squall (the last to roll through) reduced visibility to under 1/4 mile (got some video), but didn't have much wind associated with it. The previous squalls has gusts in the 40-50mph range, but the snow wasn't as heavy. I had to go out and tie up one of our small trees to prevent it from uprooting (it's a 10 foot tall softwood tree).

I would estimate our total snowfall today to be around an inch, maybe two at the very most - very hard to judge with rapid melting. There is still a coating on the grass and elevated surfaces as of right now, quite odd when you consider most trees are still foliated and green.

Looks like this system will drop a bit to the south tomorrow and increase the pressure gradient once again... It also looks like it finally develops a secondary jet axis in the SFC-700MB range, within the mixing layer. This extends from central Canada through all of Michigan and back into Toronto. If anyone is still up in the UP at this time, that would probably be your best bet at seeing storm force winds and significant wave action. RUC is actually more intense with the low level winds, with sustained SFC winds of 50-60knts forecasted for the Big Mac at 12Z.