Another Fall Tornado Outbreak Possible

[Michael O'Keeffe]

GFS is indicating a deep surface low over the C Plains next week. That along with strong instability and good deep layer shear should be in place as well. This should lead to tornadic supercells possibly in parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and possibly points farther east. It is quite to early to know for sure how things will pan out and if things will pan out. I have a strong feeling though we could have a large severe weather event on Tuesday.

Still to early for a forecast thread, but definitly something to keep an eye on.

[Chris Wilburn]

I just took a glance at it myself. Of course this far out anything can change, but it is worth keeping an eye on for sure. Like Michael mentioned the GFS is showing a fairly deep surface low of 995mb over Central/ East Central Kansas at 00z Wednesday. Instability should be in place and wind shear looks good as well. The GFS also indicates mid 60's dewpoints possible as well. Very strong LLJ of 50-60kt forecasted in Eastern Oklahoma and extreme Southeast Kansas with backing winds at the surface in these areas as well. 500mb flow is forecasted around 40-50kt in Southeast Kansas. That is all I have to say at this point. Still a while out, but it's not like we have much else going on and to get excited about. Will be interesting to see the models runs over the next few days to see if they maintain what they are showing now.

Chris Wilburn

[Robert Dewey]

The 12Z had a nice system winding up along the Great Lakes, nothing on the 18Z. I'm not placing any bets attm.

[Dick McGowan]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_mslp&hours=hr120hr144

Still aways out, but that is a big difference from the 12z run.

[rdale]

It's rarely of any value at all to look at those time ranges without ensemble data, ESPECIALLY with the GFS. Use ensembles almost exclusively when you are talking about 5+ days out.