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Thread: T.S. Karen

  1. #1
    Member Marc Austin's Avatar
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    Default T.S. Karen

    Well, most of the models have been consistently calling for T.S. (near hurricane) Karen to move to the NNW and then NE out to sea, however, a couple of the most recent runs are showing Karen taking a NNW turn followed by a turn to the west, possibly taking aim on the U.S. East Coast. I know this is very far out, but I just wanted to know if anyone had any thoughts. It's such a large system I thought it was worth starting a thread over.
    "It takes a real storm in the average person's life to make him realize how much worrying he has done over the squalls." Bruce Barton

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    Member Josh Morgerman's Avatar
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    The latest NHC advsiory package-- 5 pm EDT-- now shows a noticeable bend to the left starting Day 4. Very, very interesting.

    I'm having trouble picturing a Cape Verde hurricane hitting the USA in October-- but weirder, more anti-climo things have happened in the last few years.
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    Member Stuart Robinson's Avatar
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    If you buy the Euro and the CMC - both paint a picutre of Karen hitting South Florida as a major Hurricane! (Take this with a large pinch of salt this far out)

  4. #4

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    Josh, I remember well when Hurricane Hazel, a cape verde hurricane made landfall and destroyed Long Beach, North Carolina on Oct. 15, 1954. My home in Raleigh was in her western eye wall although I did not know it for many decades later. A new cape verde hurricane hitting the eastern US would be no surprise. Ed

  5. #5
    Member Josh Morgerman's Avatar
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    Hey Ed!

    I guess everyone's definition of "Cape Verde hurricane" is different-- because I never considered Hazel 1954 a Cape Verde hurricane. I consider a CV 'cane to be one that becomes an actual cyclone (tropical depression or greater) E of 40W and S of 20N. I know others have different definitions, and I'm not suggesting mine is necessarily the best. But Hazel's point of origin (at almost 60W) doesn't suggest a CV hurricane to me.

    Nothing's impossible-- but climatologically, Cape Verde hurricanes hitting the USA in October are extremely rare-- so, it would still surprise me greatly to see it happen again. That doesn't mean I'm saying it won't happen-- just that it's extremely rare and goes against what one would expect based on climatology.

    P.S. Here's Chris Landsea's take on Cape Verde hurricanes: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A2.html


    He considers a CV 'cane to be one that forms within ~600 mi of those islands-- but, interestingly, he admits that there's no formal definition and that the term is essentially used subjectively:
    Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before reaching the Caribbean. (That would be my definition, there may be others.) Typically, this may occur in August and September, but in rare years (like 1995) there may be some in late July and/or early October. The numbers range from none up to around five per year - with an average of around 2.
    Last edited by Josh Morgerman; 09-27-2007 at 08:11 PM.
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  6. #6
    Member Josh Morgerman's Avatar
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    P.S. Here's one important-- but rare-- example of a Cape Verde 'cane hitting the USA in October. This one made landfall in SC with an intensity of ~955 mb/105 kt:

    Last edited by Josh Morgerman; 09-27-2007 at 08:09 PM.
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    Member cdcollura's Avatar
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    Good day,

    This is another one that is going to be "beheaded by the wind's shears"...

    NHC is being un-realistically optimistic on bringing Karen through 72 hours of Westerly flow aloft, then a NW flow aloft - Even more destructive - For another 24 hours after that.

    In 96 to 120 hours, the cyclone should be free of such hurdles.

    Ofcourse, don't expect a depression / remnant low after that. Karen will be torn apart in 48 hours, and is already just above TS strength - Barely.

    If a 'MIARALE' does occur, and Karen gets through all that - Then, yes FLORIDA - Be ready for "Jeanne number 2" ;-(

    Dream-on ... It's 2007, NOT 2004-2005 ;-(
    Christopher Collura - KG4PJN
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  8. #8
    Member Josh Morgerman's Avatar
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    I agree-- the picture looks somewhat grim for the cyclone this morning. But, man, if it survives the next few days, things will get very, very interesting...
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    Member Stuart Robinson's Avatar
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    Shear apart, the risk to any Florida / US landfall is going away rapidly with any North movement in track - and as you can see from todays Viz loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html Karen is moving DUE NORTH.

  10. #10
    Member cdcollura's Avatar
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    Good day,

    Yes Indeed!

    The NHC is talking about a WNW motion but the storm's moving due north on the visible.

    I thought I was drunk or something but I cannot understand why NHC is still saying WNW?

    What's up with that?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stuart Robinson View Post
    Shear apart, the risk to any Florida / US landfall is going away rapidly with any North movement in track - and as you can see from todays Viz loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html Karen is moving DUE NORTH.
    Christopher Collura - KG4PJN
    Sky-Chaser Storm Journalism
    Quote: "If it has a core, I'll punch it!"

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