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Thread: 4/29/09 FCST: KS/TX/OK

  1. #11
    Jason Boggs
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    I really don't see the clouds moving out much for tomorrow. The convection as of now (2am) will only increase in coverage like the trend for the last hour or two. If the cloudcover breaks up, I may target the SE TX Panhandle (just SW of Childress) or SW Oklahoma. If we can get the clouds to get out of here and get some increasing moisture, this may be a pretty good day. I think the NAM and GFS is overdoing the CAPE values. CAPE of 1500-1700 seems more likely. Target as of right now: Matador, TX

  2. #12
    Member Jay McCoy's Avatar
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    That convectin this morning Jason didnt really develope and cover the panhandle like we expected and moved out of the southern panhandle by 9am leaving clearing skies and max heating. Today may be better than we expected since there isnt near the subsidence we expected. My target will depend heavily on where the dryline sets up but I do like the area SE of Amariillo down to Childress. I dont think the dryline will mix east too fast so maybe somewhere from Clarendon down to Turkey. Infact anywhere east of I-27 and south of 287 should be ok. Too early to name an exact target.

    Going to take a half day off work and head out early afternoon.
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  3. #13
    Stormtrack supporter Tim Marshall's Avatar
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    Default APRIL 29, 2009 - FCST - TM

    TARGET: RALLS, TX TIME OF DEPARTURE: 10:30 AM - A marginal chase day today, but I can't ignore that outflow boundary. PROS - Ample surface moisture is in place with upslope surface flow into W TX. Meanwhile, winds aloft will increase out of the west to around 40 knots. That kind of directional turning and speed will make for rotating storms that will be force fed inflow (like last night) as they move east. Obviously, the greatest low-level helicities will be along the boundary. Once again, the RUC is overdoing the CAPE fields, but the morning NAM still indicates the peak CAPE will be just off the caprock. CONS - Weak 700 mb flow will promote HP type supercells. Persistent cloud cover could limit surface heating. RUC and NAM differ on the placement of the dryline. RUC has it nosing off the caprock whereas the NAM keeps it on the South Plains near Lubbock. That makes a difference to me as I have to be at work in Austin, TX by 8:30 AM tomorrow morning. TM

  4. #14
    Member Patrick Martin's Avatar
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    I've got the day off from work, but I have to be back to Denver tonight for a Thursday morning appt. Since distance is a limiting factor, I'm going to hedge my bets, cross my fingers, and play the SW KS target. Pros will be good moisture, good CAPE, surface low in SE Colorado helping the dryline mix east. I am hoping the theta-e, heat axis, and semi-dryline punch advertised on the 12z RUC verify to help kick off an isolated storm or 2. Cons are the obvious upper flow issues and a healthy cap. I'll be leaving for Garden City KS by approx 10:30am MDT.

  5. #15
    Member BrandonWhittington's Avatar
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    Im actually starting to favor the central Panhandle a bit more. Clouds in the southeast are holding tuff, but they should start to clear out in the next few hours..Also to note, the dryline is still in Eastern New Mexico.

    The central panhandles didnt recieve any kind of rain last night except for northern Hutchinson County.. Based on my experience, i have never had good luck with storms that form on or near outflow boundaries...Just me though =)

    I will hanging tight here at home in Fritch today and hopefully something will fire pretty close. Temperatures should warm pretty nice here. If i were to pick a more define target, it would be from Dumas, to Herford, to Amarillo triangle..

    Good luck to all that chases here today!!

  6. #16
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    The southeastern 1/3 of the TX panhandle and NW TX look like a good bet today.

    1. Very quality moisture is entrenching into the region.
    2. Good directional shear and modest-okay speed shear progged.
    3. Forecasted upper wave to move into the panhandle during peak heating (mid-late afternoon).
    4. Left exit region of jet streak nosing in.
    5. Outflow boundary from morning MCS.
    6. High instabilities possibly developing.

    The corridor from Wichita Falls, TX through Childress SW to Lubbock is probably the area to watch.

  7. #17
    Member Darren Addy's Avatar
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    Will be chasing today with Ryan McGinnis but I'm holding him back since I can't leave Kearney before 4 PM. I'll defer to his superior forecasting and data reading skills, but looking at conditions for the area we can potentially reach, I'd be looking around Hays, KS. Marginal, but I'm hoping for a well-timed big boost from the shortwave. Looks like we are getting the clearing/heating we were needing. Model skew-t looks pretty good for Hays; most of the parameters are decent for supercells and barely into the tornado range, but I'll take any chase day over mowing the lawn every time!
    Last edited by Darren Addy; 04-29-2009 at 11:43 AM.
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  8. #18
    Member Andrew Stoller's Avatar
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    If I was going to chase the KS target area, I'd want to get further west then Hays. Areas east of the KS/CO border are pretty socked in with cloud cover. The dryline sets up right on the CO/KS border, and with a surface low in southeast CO, there's going to be a dryline punch across southwest KS. Just north of that will be where the best backing winds and moisture convergence will be.

    I'd want to be in Tribune or Syracuse about 20Z. In fact, if I can get the rest of my work done in the next 2 hours, I may head out.

  9. #19
    Member nmjameswilson's Avatar
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    Spot on Andrew ... I few cells have just started poping up along the CO/KS border. I'm in Great Bend heading to Scott City to take alook.

  10. #20
    Member Patrick Martin's Avatar
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    Agree! I have a feeling the best action in KS will be down by the surface low in SW KS. With an MD issued for the area, albeit only the northern part of the MD covers the area, hoping the forcing near the low can get things to pop.

    In Colby now, getting ready to drop south on hwy 83 towards Scott City and Garden City.

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