Results 1 to 6 of 6

Thread: Invest 90

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL and Naples, FL
    Posts
    39

    Default Invest 90

    Could not resist making this post in February. We'll take the rain...

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...290_model.html

  2. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    83

    Default

    Man, if the Gulf is still warm enough to produce an Invest in February, what's it going to be like later on this year?

  3. #3
    Member Ari Brown's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    18

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Zach Young View Post
    Man, if the Gulf is still warm enough to produce an Invest in February, what's it going to be like later on this year?
    Exactly my thoughts. Due to the unseasonably mild temperatures across most of the U.S. this winter, ocean waters have not cooled off much. If we make it through June and July without any GOM activity and then have a storm get in there in August or September, it's going to be absolutely nuts.
    -Ari Brown
    Advanced Skywarn Spotter as of 31 March 2011
    Atlantic hurricane tracker since the 2006 seaason
    http://updraftwx.blogspot.com/

  4. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    83

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ari Brown View Post
    Exactly my thoughts. Due to the unseasonably mild temperatures across most of the U.S. this winter, ocean waters have not cooled off much. If we make it through June and July without any GOM activity and then have a storm get in there in August or September, it's going to be absolutely nuts.
    I view it more like, if nothing comes along to cool the waters before they start to really warm back up again, June and July could be like August and September in terms of energy supply. Unless there's a lot of shear in the tropics to kill off the storms, hurricane season could start very early.

  5. #5
    Member cdcollura's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Sunrise, Florida
    Posts
    1,322

    Default

    Good day all,

    Interesting stuff ... But usually these "weird" (or out-of-season) systems don't mean the upcoming main season would be busy or not-busy.

    This system is more of a mid-level / semi-subtropical system, and has happened many times before in that part of the Carribean. As of now (Feb 6), the convection is highly displaced to the NE of the surface trough and the system is becoming more of a trough than a closed low.

    As for the upcoming season, the warm winter may give the Gulf of Mexico a "head-start" heat-budget wise, but keep in mind that the rest of the tropics is rarely touched by cool air / fronts anyway, regardless of how bad the winter is in the mid-latitudes.

    Ofcourse, if there is an active subtropical jet, like 2010 and 2011, nothing would form over the Gulf of Mexico anyway due to the high shear, and anything east of the US would also be weakened and / or recurve out to sea.
    Christopher Collura - KG4PJN
    Sky-Chaser Storm Journalism
    Quote: "If it has a core, I'll punch it!"

  6. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    83

    Default

    I checked out SST anomalies and the Gulf is running just about average for this time of year. Maybe 0.5-1.0C above. I don't exactly have an encyclopedic knowledge of out-of-season invests, so it's easy for my imagination to run away with itself

    On another note, flipping through a few months of SST anomalies, one does get the impression that La Nina conditions in the E Pacific seem to be weakening...

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •