Ok, real world example here, and this is probably the main thing that bugs me and what I want to learn more about.
As of this post, this is the outlook for zip 15108 (near where I live):
Late Afternoon: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Yesterday, it gave me a 60% chance for "Severe Thunderstorms", and now it's been downgraded to basically a "40% Chance of Rain".
The low pressure system is out in Michigan and there's no merging of fronts anywhere near here.
It doesn't help I have no idea what RUC or NAM models mean... lol
What do I need to read or better understand to help with figuring out how they get their forecasts? (aka: Which maps/models do I need to have a better understanding of?)