Hurricane Dean

[HAltschule]

Originally Posted by rdale

Charleston, Yucatan... they sound similar at least ;> What's a few thousand miles when it comes to forecasting...

Alright, I did not plan on tooting my own own horn or that of the GFS model but, since you brought it up.....

You are forgetting the 2000+ miles of ocean that the model correctly forecast this storm to traverse. Sure, tracks change as the synoptic and global scale features change and adjust...that's the way it is. So yes, the track forecast did change but the GFS did a remarkable job in forecasting this system to develop...and it's intensity. You'll recall my post around 2 weeks ago or more calling for a MAJOR hurricane based on the appearance of the GFS tropical system it was persistently developing in the models.

C'mon RDale, can't you finally admit that the GFS model (and my own forecast 2 weeks ago) did a very good job in forecasting this event...or is it too upsetting to admit that your doubts and criticisms of the model was wrong?

[Gawain Charlton-Perrin]

Did Dean come ashore as a Category 5? Does anyone have any damage reports from such a strong hurricane coming ashore?

[John Peters]

Originally Posted by Gawain Charlton-Perrin

Did Dean come ashore as a Category 5? Does anyone have any damage reports from such a strong hurricane coming ashore?

Dean came ashore with a central pressure of 906 mb and sustained winds of 165 mph, making it the 3rd most intense cat 5 hurricane ever to landfall in the atlantic basin. Actually, the lowest central press. observed in the system occurred as the western eyewall was moving onto land. This means that the system was in the process of deepening as it made landfall.

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Really cool picture of close-up of eye (and annotated by myself) of Dean while intensifying in W Caribbean (taken by shuttle Endeavor STS-118)...



The view of the eye of hurricane Dean is at an angle, and although does not give a straight-down shot into the eye, it does reveal some "structure" of the massive and majestic clear eye of the storm.

The very interesting feature is the huge cluster of thunderstorms with rock-hard appearance nearly covering half the eye ... Very impressive indeed!

The storm "complex" is so high up it rises above and casts a shadow on the "top" of the rest of the hurricane!!

[MatthewCarman]

Chris may I ask where you found that image at? Very inpressive and would like to save a few images of Dean to my computer.

[cdcollura]

Good evening...

Originally Posted by MatthewCarman

Chris may I ask where you found that image at? Very inpressive and would like to save a few images of Dean to my computer.

Link is below (for STS-118) NASA

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ricaneDean.jpg

This shot is wild ;-)

[Bob Schafer]

This link is to a Playa del Carmen forum. Lots of pics. The link takes you to page 4 of 14 (14 attm, anyway):

http://www.playa.info/playa-del-carm...a-folks-4.html

Bob