1/31/08-2/1/08 Winter Storm: OK/KS/MO/IL/IN/OH/MI

Brandon Sullivan · 01-30-2008, 04:54 PM

Surprised no one has started a thread about this yet.

Long story short, a low will eject East Northeast into the Ohio Valley.. Accumulations up to 8-10 inches are likely Northwest of the low. Models are shaky with the path of the system. The WRF is varying the path and is pretty inconsistent..

It will be worth watching to see if Convection on the Deep south can get going, which could effectively limit the moisture feed somewhat, which could somewhat cut the snow totals by a few inches..

01-30-2008, 05:02 PM

Classic Appalachian 'cold air dam' ice storm shaping up with this also - with high QPF painted over subfreezing temps through midday Friday for the eastern mountains and the Shenandoah Valley/Blue Ridge.

Michael O'Keeffe · 01-30-2008, 05:03 PM

Winter storm warning is out for us calling for 5-8 inches of snow with fairly gusty winds as well. Maybe interesting to say the least, but I'd rather see tornadoes.

Chris Wilburn · 01-30-2008, 06:05 PM

Might need to add KS and OK to the discussion. Winter Storm Warning is in effect for a large portion of NE OK and much of eastern KS. The forecast is calling for 5-8 inches in portions of SE KS and extreme NE OK with lower amounts south towards Tulsa around 2-4 inches. The track of the 850mb disturbance should be in western OK by 12z tomorrow and NE OK by 18z. It looks like between noon and evening tomorrow should be the time frame for the best accumulating snow for NE OK and SE KS. I have not looked at points east of here but I am sure it will be more of the same of what were are going to recieve here.

Chris Vagasky · 01-30-2008, 10:18 PM

Looking at the 0z NAM for DTX on Bufkit right now...

Something doesn't seem quite right.

Showing snowfall rates of >2 inches per hour for several (5) hours and total snowfall of nearly 2 feet!

I'm a little shaky about that run's output. I'd still put SE Michigan in a zone of about 8-10 inches of snow.

Matthew Fischer · 01-30-2008, 11:46 PM

Winter Storm Watch for most counties in Chicago county warning area. Expecting 1 to 4 inches in the northwestern counties, 4 to 7 inches along Lake Michigan and then south between Joliet and Kankakee, down to La Salle. Then 6 to 9 inches south of Kankakee.

I would love if this storm tracked maybe 50 miles north of what it is now on the models. More snow for Chicago area and more people moaning about how the weather sucks and how cold it is outside.

Andrew Francis · 01-31-2008, 01:07 AM

Not really sure what is going on here in OK so far... Temps falling extremely slow its now (1:00am) and the temperature is 38F. Wind is picking up, and we had a wave of light rain come through earlier.

This is weird the way this system is coming out, it has a huge dry pocket in itself over nearly all of Oklahoma... And it appears the precipitation is decipating nearly everywhere with it.

Not really sure what is going on with this? Forecast is saying from 6am - 6pm in Oklahoma is when the heavy snow will arrive. I am confused when looking @ radar because it appears the system is moving fairly quickly and not putting down much precip?

Anyone else know anything or have any predictions?

Oh and im in Stillwater, OK (N. central ok)

Chris Wilburn · 01-31-2008, 02:12 AM

The 1006mb surface low is located near SW OK into NW TX near Childress and the 850mb disturbance/low is located in SW OK at this time. Surface temps. are still fairly warm east of I-35 and even points west of I-35 until you get to say NW OK and SW KS. Surface temps. drop off fairly rapidly in these areas opposed to areas just west of I-35 and east of I-35. There appears to be a cold front running from Wichita to just south of Pratt extending down into NW OK. I think later on this morning as the cold front moves further east into OK along with the 850mb disturbance moving out of SW OK into central/Eastern Ok we will begin to see heavy snow with accumulations in the range of what has been forecasted. It appears that with the track of the 850mb low being a bit further south than earlier forecasted that the area of concern may be from Stillwater to Tulsa and points east instead of SE KS and extreme NE OK that was predicted earlier. These areas will still get their fair share, but I have my eye on the Highway 412 corridor from Stillwater to Siloam Springs, Arkansas as an area to watch. This is also where forecasted higher snowfall amounts are reflected in the new run of the NAM that came out at 00z. Earlier runs of the NAM had the 850mb low further north and had the KS/OK border into SE KS getting hit hard, but that seems like it may have changed now, but who knows. I may be wrong on all of this, but this is what I am forecasting to see if it holds true or not. I would say later on this morning say between 7am-10am things will begin to get interesting and stay that way until near 00z when things should taper off.

Andrew Francis · 01-31-2008, 03:28 AM

reflectivity lightning up nicely all over NW OK and W OK and into TX panhandle.

looking better for a good snowstorm here in Stillwater. I just hope temps can fall in time for the main precip core

EDIT:

forget this storm... LAME

Andrew Geil · 01-31-2008, 06:43 AM

Aye aye aye... look at all the snow coming. Gonna suck tonight; as I have to travel from north-central Illinois to Springfield tonight about 8pm. Hopefully the snow will hold out until then, but ya never know...

They're calling for upwards to a foot now for central Illinois, plus strong winds. Gonna be nasty.

01-30-2008, 04:54 PM	#1
Brandon Sullivan Stormtrack supporter Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Norman, OK Posts: 752 Thanks: 2 Thanked 13 Times in 3 Posts	1/31/08-2/1/08 Winter Storm: OK/KS/MO/IL/IN/OH/MI Surprised no one has started a thread about this yet. Long story short, a low will eject East Northeast into the Ohio Valley.. Accumulations up to 8-10 inches are likely Northwest of the low. Models are shaky with the path of the system. The WRF is varying the path and is pretty inconsistent.. It will be worth watching to see if Convection on the Deep south can get going, which could effectively limit the moisture feed somewhat, which could somewhat cut the snow totals by a few inches.. __________________ Brandon Sullivan -KC9ILN- University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology My Blog Wicked Wind Media My Posts Represent My Opinions And Not The Views of OU, NOAA or the DOC.

01-30-2008, 05:03 PM	#3
Michael O'Keeffe Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Overland Park, KS Posts: 772 Thanks: 4 Thanked 25 Times in 12 Posts	Winter storm warning is out for us calling for 5-8 inches of snow with fairly gusty winds as well. Maybe interesting to say the least, but I'd rather see tornadoes. __________________ Michael O'Keeffe Mike & Mike Films The NEW Supercell Crazy.com My Blog

01-30-2008, 06:05 PM	#4
Chris Wilburn Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Miami, Oklahoma Posts: 275 Thanks: 4 Thanked 7 Times in 6 Posts	Might need to add KS and OK to the discussion. Winter Storm Warning is in effect for a large portion of NE OK and much of eastern KS. The forecast is calling for 5-8 inches in portions of SE KS and extreme NE OK with lower amounts south towards Tulsa around 2-4 inches. The track of the 850mb disturbance should be in western OK by 12z tomorrow and NE OK by 18z. It looks like between noon and evening tomorrow should be the time frame for the best accumulating snow for NE OK and SE KS. I have not looked at points east of here but I am sure it will be more of the same of what were are going to recieve here. Last edited by Chris Wilburn; 01-30-2008 at 06:12 PM. Reason: change

01-30-2008, 10:18 PM	#5
Chris Vagasky Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Norman, OK Posts: 209 Thanks: 2 Thanked 10 Times in 6 Posts	Looking at the 0z NAM for DTX on Bufkit right now... Something doesn't seem quite right. Showing snowfall rates of >2 inches per hour for several (5) hours and total snowfall of nearly 2 feet! I'm a little shaky about that run's output. I'd still put SE Michigan in a zone of about 8-10 inches of snow. __________________ Chris Vagasky University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology Oklahoma City Weather Examiner

01-30-2008, 11:46 PM	#6
Matthew Fischer Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Westmont, IL Posts: 79 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Winter Storm Watch for most counties in Chicago county warning area. Expecting 1 to 4 inches in the northwestern counties, 4 to 7 inches along Lake Michigan and then south between Joliet and Kankakee, down to La Salle. Then 6 to 9 inches south of Kankakee. I would love if this storm tracked maybe 50 miles north of what it is now on the models. More snow for Chicago area and more people moaning about how the weather sucks and how cold it is outside. __________________ Matthew Fischer ---------------- http://www.youtube.com/FisHF5

01-30-2008, 05:02 PM	#2
Dan Robinson Guest Posts: n/a	Classic Appalachian 'cold air dam' ice storm shaping up with this also - with high QPF painted over subfreezing temps through midday Friday for the eastern mountains and the Shenandoah Valley/Blue Ridge.

01-31-2008, 01:07 AM	#7
Andrew Francis Member Join Date: May 2005 Location: Edmond, Oklahoma Posts: 182 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Not really sure what is going on here in OK so far... Temps falling extremely slow its now (1:00am) and the temperature is 38F. Wind is picking up, and we had a wave of light rain come through earlier. This is weird the way this system is coming out, it has a huge dry pocket in itself over nearly all of Oklahoma... And it appears the precipitation is decipating nearly everywhere with it. Not really sure what is going on with this? Forecast is saying from 6am - 6pm in Oklahoma is when the heavy snow will arrive. I am confused when looking @ radar because it appears the system is moving fairly quickly and not putting down much precip? Anyone else know anything or have any predictions? Oh and im in Stillwater, OK (N. central ok)

01-31-2008, 02:12 AM	#8
Chris Wilburn Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Miami, Oklahoma Posts: 275 Thanks: 4 Thanked 7 Times in 6 Posts	The 1006mb surface low is located near SW OK into NW TX near Childress and the 850mb disturbance/low is located in SW OK at this time. Surface temps. are still fairly warm east of I-35 and even points west of I-35 until you get to say NW OK and SW KS. Surface temps. drop off fairly rapidly in these areas opposed to areas just west of I-35 and east of I-35. There appears to be a cold front running from Wichita to just south of Pratt extending down into NW OK. I think later on this morning as the cold front moves further east into OK along with the 850mb disturbance moving out of SW OK into central/Eastern Ok we will begin to see heavy snow with accumulations in the range of what has been forecasted. It appears that with the track of the 850mb low being a bit further south than earlier forecasted that the area of concern may be from Stillwater to Tulsa and points east instead of SE KS and extreme NE OK that was predicted earlier. These areas will still get their fair share, but I have my eye on the Highway 412 corridor from Stillwater to Siloam Springs, Arkansas as an area to watch. This is also where forecasted higher snowfall amounts are reflected in the new run of the NAM that came out at 00z. Earlier runs of the NAM had the 850mb low further north and had the KS/OK border into SE KS getting hit hard, but that seems like it may have changed now, but who knows. I may be wrong on all of this, but this is what I am forecasting to see if it holds true or not. I would say later on this morning say between 7am-10am things will begin to get interesting and stay that way until near 00z when things should taper off.

01-31-2008, 03:28 AM	#9
Andrew Francis Member Join Date: May 2005 Location: Edmond, Oklahoma Posts: 182 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	reflectivity lightning up nicely all over NW OK and W OK and into TX panhandle. looking better for a good snowstorm here in Stillwater. I just hope temps can fall in time for the main precip core EDIT: forget this storm... LAME Last edited by Andrew Francis; 01-31-2008 at 08:45 AM.

01-31-2008, 06:43 AM	#10
Andrew Geil Member Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Midwest Posts: 415 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	OYE SNOW! Aye aye aye... look at all the snow coming. Gonna suck tonight; as I have to travel from north-central Illinois to Springfield tonight about 8pm. Hopefully the snow will hold out until then, but ya never know... They're calling for upwards to a foot now for central Illinois, plus strong winds. Gonna be nasty.

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