5/25/08 DISC: TX/OK/KS/NE/AR/MO/IL/IA/MN/WI/CA

CHris Whitehead · 05-25-2008, 07:51 PM

MODS: Please edit date for typo-5/25

Just thought Id start a discussion thread on todays outbreak, more in terms of geographic scale than numbers, but numbers are catching up.
I specifically am interested in everyones opinion about how models and outlets forecasted todays severe weather. I mean everything is tornadoing just about. We got reports from Canada to Midland. And its not just the Plains, its extending into the Upper Midwest. Its really cool to look at CONUS vis loop at the explosion of white. Anyway, I think models really underforecasted the amount of intensity and scale.
The central KS and NW AR activity was nailed, from the cold pool/cold front to the MCV, respectively. Will also give models and SPC credit for the Upper Midwest as that has played out as forecasted.

Would also like to extend this discussion (if possible wrt to rules) to mention a little bit of the entire storm system from Thursday thru tomorrow with limited forecasting details on tomorrow due to ST rules for this read. This is day #4 with really Saturday being the only "quiet" day in terms of overall coverage. KS was only region that didnt light up, mainly due to scattered morning convection/cloud cover stabilizing the boundary layer.
Anyways just would like everyones two cents

EDIT: 9 WWs, WOW

Michael O'Keeffe · 05-25-2008, 09:17 PM

Looking at some video of the tornado damage in Parkersburg, IA it looks VERY VERY bad. An entire street is GONE nothing but flat slabs with heaps of rubble on top. Not one wall is left standing on a few of the homes and from what the anchors were saying the homes their were fairly new and pretty large and expensive homes which makes me wonder about the way homes are built these days. But very saddening to see, if I had to say not knowing how well built the homes were i'd say EF5 easy.

rdale · 05-25-2008, 09:38 PM

Houses can't be EF5 damage, you need something more study.

Heidi Farrar · 05-25-2008, 09:52 PM

Here is a link to damage photos of the tornado that tore across central MN (north of the Twin Cities) this evening.

http://wcco.com/slideshows/hugo.torn...675.html?rid=7

Looks really bad there, too. A friend got a photo of this one just after it went over-top of his house. It was cycling at that time, but shortly after that it had a 146 knt TVS and was doing the damage in the photos. He got the photo when it was a few miles east of his place.

Benjamin Smith · 05-25-2008, 10:18 PM

CNN is reporting that a 2 year old child was killed in the storm north of Minneapolis. Very sad story indeed. My heart and condolences go out to the families involved.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/0...her/index.html

Kiel Ortega · 05-25-2008, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdale

Houses can't be EF5 damage, you need something more study.

FYI: Houses can be EF5...can go to 220 MPH (max) with a cleaned slab (DOD FR12, DI 10).

Jeff Miller · 05-25-2008, 10:24 PM

The damage from the long track Iowa tornado was immense and devestating, but the slabs were not clean slates. There were no walls standing whatosever, yet great piles of pulverized debris were everywhere. This will likely be an EF-4 rated tornado at its strongest.

Kevin Statler · 05-25-2008, 10:29 PM

Sounds really bad in IA. 7 dead so far per AP from state official and rising..

jladue · 05-25-2008, 10:30 PM

It's tough to get an EF5 or F5 post 2002 because surveyors have become so critical of building integrity. Nevertheless, some of the debris on some slabs may be neighbor's debris. Will wait for a ground survey and hopefully better pics.

Derek Weston · 05-25-2008, 10:38 PM

Damage being shown on local news in NE Iowa is rather terrible.

Not sure it's an EF5 -- but wouldn't be at all surprised to see an EF4 rating.

Streaming coverage here:

http://www.kcrg.com/

05-25-2008, 07:51 PM	#1
CHris Whitehead Member Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Cresson, TX Posts: 388	5/25/08 DISC: TX/OK/KS/NE/AR/MO/IL/IA/MN/WI/CA MODS: Please edit date for typo-5/25 Just thought Id start a discussion thread on todays outbreak, more in terms of geographic scale than numbers, but numbers are catching up. I specifically am interested in everyones opinion about how models and outlets forecasted todays severe weather. I mean everything is tornadoing just about. We got reports from Canada to Midland. And its not just the Plains, its extending into the Upper Midwest. Its really cool to look at CONUS vis loop at the explosion of white. Anyway, I think models really underforecasted the amount of intensity and scale. The central KS and NW AR activity was nailed, from the cold pool/cold front to the MCV, respectively. Will also give models and SPC credit for the Upper Midwest as that has played out as forecasted. Would also like to extend this discussion (if possible wrt to rules) to mention a little bit of the entire storm system from Thursday thru tomorrow with limited forecasting details on tomorrow due to ST rules for this read. This is day #4 with really Saturday being the only "quiet" day in terms of overall coverage. KS was only region that didnt light up, mainly due to scattered morning convection/cloud cover stabilizing the boundary layer. Anyways just would like everyones two cents EDIT: 9 WWs, WOW __________________ Jonathan 'Chris' Whitehead OU School of Meteorology 2009 Graduate Last edited by CHris Whitehead; 05-25-2008 at 09:13 PM.

05-25-2008, 09:17 PM	#2
Michael O'Keeffe Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Overland Park, KS Posts: 716	Looking at some video of the tornado damage in Parkersburg, IA it looks VERY VERY bad. An entire street is GONE nothing but flat slabs with heaps of rubble on top. Not one wall is left standing on a few of the homes and from what the anchors were saying the homes their were fairly new and pretty large and expensive homes which makes me wonder about the way homes are built these days. But very saddening to see, if I had to say not knowing how well built the homes were i'd say EF5 easy. __________________ Michael O'Keeffe Mike & Mike Films The NEW Supercell Crazy.com My Blog

05-25-2008, 10:38 PM	#10
Derek Weston Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Iowa City, Iowa Posts: 363	Damage being shown on local news in NE Iowa is rather terrible. Not sure it's an EF5 -- but wouldn't be at all surprised to see an EF4 rating. Streaming coverage here: http://www.kcrg.com/ __________________ My posts represent my opinion as well as the opinions of all storm track members, the NWS, the USA, and God himself.

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

05-25-2008, 09:38 PM	#3
rdale Member Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Lansing, MI Posts: 3,641	Houses can't be EF5 damage, you need something more study.

05-25-2008, 09:52 PM	#4
Heidi Farrar Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: north-central Arkansas Posts: 205	Here is a link to damage photos of the tornado that tore across central MN (north of the Twin Cities) this evening. http://wcco.com/slideshows/hugo.torn...675.html?rid=7 Looks really bad there, too. A friend got a photo of this one just after it went over-top of his house. It was cycling at that time, but shortly after that it had a 146 knt TVS and was doing the damage in the photos. He got the photo when it was a few miles east of his place. __________________ TornadoVideos.net TwisterData

05-25-2008, 10:18 PM	#5
Benjamin Smith Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: Peculiar, MO Posts: 53	CNN is reporting that a 2 year old child was killed in the storm north of Minneapolis. Very sad story indeed. My heart and condolences go out to the families involved. http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/0...her/index.html

05-25-2008, 10:24 PM	#7
Jeff Miller Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: South Sioux City, nebraska Posts: 666	The damage from the long track Iowa tornado was immense and devestating, but the slabs were not clean slates. There were no walls standing whatosever, yet great piles of pulverized debris were everywhere. This will likely be an EF-4 rated tornado at its strongest.

05-25-2008, 10:29 PM	#8
Kevin Statler Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Owasso,Oklahoma Posts: 71	Sounds really bad in IA. 7 dead so far per AP from state official and rising..

05-25-2008, 10:30 PM	#9
jladue Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: norman, ok Posts: 85	It's tough to get an EF5 or F5 post 2002 because surveyors have become so critical of building integrity. Nevertheless, some of the debris on some slabs may be neighbor's debris. Will wait for a ground survey and hopefully better pics.