Hurricane BERTHA

[Jesse V. Bass III]

this would be the earliest and the fartherest east development on record.. Hurricane Bertha held that in 1996... but was further west and was named on july 4th..

nhc seems to want to carry it west of the gfs model which finds a weakness in the ridge.. still early so will see what happens from here.... looks like it could be a busy season ahead...

[Jesse V. Bass III]

well, looking at the 12z models, looks like they will be upgrading it to bertha with the next advisory...


WHXX01 KWBC 031354
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1354 UTC THU JUL 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080703 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080703 1200 080704 0000 080704 1200 080705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 24.2W 13.6N 27.1W 14.3N 30.0W 15.2N 32.6W
BAMD 13.1N 24.2W 13.9N 26.7W 15.0N 29.4W 16.5N 32.1W
BAMM 13.1N 24.2W 13.8N 26.8W 14.8N 29.5W 16.2N 32.1W
LBAR 13.1N 24.2W 13.8N 26.7W 14.8N 29.7W 15.9N 33.0W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080705 1200 080706 1200 080707 1200 080708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 35.1W 19.7N 41.1W 23.0N 46.1W 24.9N 49.0W
BAMD 18.2N 35.3W 21.5N 41.8W 25.5N 44.2W 28.2N 41.7W
BAMM 17.8N 35.1W 21.0N 41.3W 24.1N 45.5W 26.4N 46.6W
LBAR 17.2N 36.4W 20.3N 42.9W 22.9N 46.8W 25.3N 46.9W
SHIP 64KTS 71KTS 73KTS 65KTS
DSHP 64KTS 71KTS 73KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 24.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 21.8W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 20.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN

[Jim Leonard]

As of 11am the tropical depression has been upgraded to tropical storm Bertha. This is the farthest east for such an early season tropical storm as far as records go back. Too bad this storm will never get to this side of the atlantic as the weakness in the subtropical ridge in the mid-atlantic that the models have been advertizing for days will keep Bertha far at sea. As many have said this is a real favorable sign of an active atlantic season to come. This type of formation usually doesn't show up until well into August. This is a little strange as it was a hurricane named Bertha in 1996 which developed near 40W on July 5th of that year which was historically the earliest formation that far east.

[Mike Davis]

The record early developed BERTHA is heading west/northwest from 13.3N 24.7W as of Thurs, July 3, at 11am EDT.

It seems, from early data, that an intersection will be reached maybe next Tue./Wed. when possible weakening in the subtropical ridge could allow a curve into the Central Atlantic. At that time, if strong, will likely turn more north, but if weaker at that time, it could steer more westward. Either way, it is likely that this storm will miss land and head more to the north.

It will be interesting to watch and I hope you all post your thoughts about its track past the middle of next week.

[Warren Faidley]

I believe there is some history of early African coast storms to indicate a potentially busy season.

Maybe Jim or Richard can respond.

Warren

[Jim Leonard]

Originally Posted by Warren Faidley

I believe there is some history of early African coast storms to indicate a potentially busy season.

Maybe Jim or Richard can respond.

Warren

Warren.
An early season African seedlings that become tropical depressions or tropical storms is usually an ominous sign of an active atlantic season. It does not necessarly mean a lot of U.S. landfalls but it should be an active season in numbers of storms.

[richhorodner]

Originally Posted by Jim Leonard

early season African seedlings that become tropical depressions or tropical storms is usually an ominous sign of an active atlantic season. It does not necessarly mean a lot of U.S. landfalls but it should be an active season in numbers of storms.

Ditto. But I would say a comforting sign.

Also, although persistence (of general conditions thru one season) wins out more often than not, it doesn't by much.

[Jesse V. Bass III]

Originally Posted by Jim Leonard

As of 11am the tropical depression has been upgraded to tropical storm Bertha. This is the farthest east for such an early season tropical storm as far as records go back. Too bad this storm will never get to this side of the atlantic as the weakness in the subtropical ridge in the mid-atlantic that the models have been advertizing for days will keep Bertha far at sea. As many have said this is a real favorable sign of an active atlantic season to come. This type of formation usually doesn't show up until well into August. This is a little strange as it was a hurricane named Bertha in 1996 which developed near 40W on July 5th of that year which was historically the earliest formation that far east.

i am starting to wonder about that weakness though jim... looks like with each run of the hurricane models and the globals that it shifts further west... the models early on were showing a big turn north and then almost northeast in some cases... now they look flatter and further west... may get closer than first thought, but something to watch and wait to see what happens... you are right though, this is a possibly a good sign for a busy season..

[Jesse V. Bass III]

Originally Posted by Mike Davis

The record early developed BERTHA is heading west/northwest from 13.3N 24.7W as of Thurs, July 3, at 11am EDT.

It seems, from early data, that an intersection will be reached maybe next Tue./Wed. when possible weakening in the subtropical ridge could allow a curve into the Central Atlantic. At that time, if strong, will likely turn more north, but if weaker at that time, it could steer more westward. Either way, it is likely that this storm will miss land and head more to the north.

It will be interesting to watch and I hope you all post your thoughts about its track past the middle of next week.

like i said in another post, i think that possible turn north is looking at the very least in some question right now... the models are shifting westward with each run and hav flattened out a bit from their big turn north and northeast... i am not saying by any means that i think it is coming all the way across, but the possibility of that is certainly becoming an option... way to early to know for sure, but something to watch.. looks like a busy season ahead..

[richhorodner]

Originally Posted by Jesse V. Bass III

, i think that possible turn north is looking at the very least in some question right now.....

While, I too, practice wishful thinking when it comes to landfalling hurricanes; getting one over from lat. 15 N, lon. 30 W would take something approaching a miracle.