09/13/2008 DISC: HURRICANE IKE

[Darren Addy]

Starting this Post-storm Discussion to hopefully allow an appropriate fresh start for Post-Ike discussions from the 74-page Tropical Storm thread.

Top city officials, meanwhile, are pleading with residents who weathered the storm at home to leave the island. Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas today also asked those who evacuated to stay away. "There is nothing to come here for right now," Thomas said. "Please leave. I am asking people to leave."
City officials have yet to decide whether to force people off the island.

- -source

[Darren Addy]

Originally Posted by Alex Goldstein

Does anyone have any idea of what kind of fatalities we still may be facing? I mean, it seems that fatalities have been thankfully low so far, but how much is there still left to explore? How much of these coastal areas are still untouched by search and rescue?

The link in my original post above states that a mobile refrigerated morgue is on its way to Galveston and that today the first search and rescue efforts are being sent to the hard-hit Bolivar Peninsula for the first time.

I think that fatality counts are difficult right now because they are only counting the bodies found. You can't count a body that is missing. In the confusion and disruption following the storm, there are probably a lot of people trying to find each other. It may take some time to get a real number on how many are missing (which could include any who failed to evacuate from the strong surge coastal areas). Hopefully, when all is said and done, even those unwilling or unable to evacuate will be found to be safe and sound. But I would expect (for the reasons given above) that the numbers will climb in coming days.

Just published is the account of a man who was swept from his house in Crystal Beach and survived 17 hours in the Gulf.

Davidson clung to a board as he was swept into the surf in the midst of 100-mph winds, a 25-foot storm surge and huge waves. At daylight he saw a debris field, which his wife described as the town of Crystal Beach washed into the Gulf.

For those hoping that everyone was smart enough to evacuate Crystal Beach:

[Rob Wadsworth]

It appears that the media is reticent to speak of numbers of fatalities at this point.
Which is a very conservative approach, I believe.

Surely the planes flying over the devastation must have relayed pretty fair idea of the total involved area back to FEMA and the Texas authorities.

The political arguments of the freedoms of citizens that stayed and now want to rebuild will be a political football for days yet seen.

What have we really learned?

[rdale]

It has nothing to do with being reticent - if the officials aren't providing, the media can't release... Planes flying over are unable to determine the number of deaths.

[Scott Overpeck]

Fly over images of damage from Ike:

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/ike/IKE0000.HTM

[Tim Marshall]

Looking at the images at http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/ike/IKE0000.HTM, it is clear to me that much of the low-lying, devastated areas are not accessible. I see a bridge out on the Bolivar peninsula as well as several washed out areas and sand drifts on the roads. I think more bodies will be recovered as search crews continue to arrive. TM

[Scott Overpeck]

Originally Posted by Tim Marshall

Looking at the images at http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/ike/IKE0000.HTM, it is clear to me that much of the low-lying, devastated areas are not accessible. I see a bridge out on the Bolivar peninsula as well as several washed out areas and sand drifts on the roads. I think more bodies will be recovered as search crews continue to arrive. TM

I believe that the bridge out is probably Rollover Pass. I haven't looked at the images much but I'm guessing the communities of Gilchrist and Crystal Beach are gone.

[MClarkson]

I would assume they will find a few more bodies. But I also think that a lot higher % would have left Bolivar Peninsula. First, more of those homes are second homes/summer homes/rental homes, people are far more willing to abandon them. Also, one hopes a little thinking would have led most of those people to realize they were far more exposed than Galveston Island.

[Darren Addy]

There is also the issue of identification and notification of the next-of-kin. I doubt that they are going to unnecessarily worry people by saying something generic like "a body was recovered in the vicinity of Crystal Beach". All that would do is make every single person worry who has not yet made contact with their relatives/friends from that area.

Surreal looking photos of Ike aftermath:

[Dennis Sherrod]

That first photo looks a little fishy to me. Is that real?
What a bizarre photo.