Fall Snow Storm 10-10-08 ?

[Gerrit Gulden]

I have heard from all of the locals here in Southeast Idaho that Snow has occured as early as Halloween around these parts. Well my Local National Weather service is already mentioning a possibility of snow this friday down to the valley floors 4500 elevation. This would be quite an early snow for these parts. Of course I havent researched the earliest date for a snow storm around these parts, however, in the 3 years that I have lived here this will be the first year that we will have had a snow storm this early. I am not aware of total accumulation estimates, yet can definetely say a chill is in the air and if it remains, especially when this coming storm is from the Gulf of Alaska it just yells "cold and snowy".

Anyone else's NWS mentioning a possible snow/freezing rain/freezing temps where you are?

If indeed I get snow, I will post pictures on this thread.

-gerrit

I've been pondering a Yellowstone trip for a while now, and might make the trip out there for this system...so I've been following it a little.

The GFS has been stuck in its shove it on out too fast mode, with barely a storm. Meanwhile ECMWF holds firm in a strong western US system. GFS lately has been making steps towards ECMWF. I'm more and more enticed by this one.

12z ECMWF just came out....











Looks like some decently cold air settles in ahead of it. Someone could get dumped on I imagine, with a big slow moving system such as this.


This morning's Riverton WY AFD about it....


LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS STARTING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARDS EACH
OTHER EVEN AS FAR APART AS THEY ARE. WORST CASE SCENARIO IS FOR A
DEEP UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH DEEP SURFACE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN
AND NEAR THE EAST AND NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME THE PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FOOT OR MORE SNOWFALL IN THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS...WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND CASPER MOUNTAIN AREA.
FOOTHILLS AROUND BUFFALO...CODY...THERMOPOLIS...CASPER AND LANDER
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. AT THIS TIME FORECAST
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RAIN SNOW MIX BELOW 6000 FEET. THIS SHOULD BE
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD WHERE
MORE COOLING AND MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED CITIES.

[Chad Cowan]

You know that the second season is over when Mike H looks at a trough like that and thinks 'snow chase!'

[Greg Campbell]

Originally Posted by Mike Hollingshead

I've been pondering a Yellowstone trip for a while now, and might make the trip out there for this system...so I've been following it a little.

(Please pardon the thread hijack.)

Keep in mind that the National Park Service is VERY conservative about road closures. A few inches of snow in the passes is all it takes to shut the roads.

A friend and I visited Jellystone last year, in early Oct. We barely got in between two minor storms, and were nearly stranded at Old Faithful Lodge when a whole inch fell overnight.

That said, the place is gorgeous with a little snow laying about. Try a pre-dawn hike in the O.F. geyser basin - the light, color, and fog effects are awesome.

Originally Posted by Chad Cowan

You know that the second season is over when Mike H looks at a trough like that and thinks 'snow chase!'

Naw, lol, that is the crappy part about already wanting to go to Yellowstone and figuring may as well do it during a snow storm. I know damn well what I'll miss on the plains during the same snow storm out there. The storm could be the second season.

Thanks for the info Greg. I've been trying to get there right before Beartooth Pass closes(it would rule to be up there during a snow storm, but that seems a bit impossible....given one good snow storm now will likely be the closure for the winter for it...since that is mid-October). I hope they aren't too conservative with the rest of the park though, as that would suck, especially if I room in Gardiner, lol. Should just room in the truck.

The main thing I wanted to shoot was moon-lit gyser scenes, or the Yellowstone River, etc. That will be the hardest part given the snow storm, lol. Hopefully they at least open them fairly quickly after it snows.

[Paul Hadfield]

I'm hoping for at least a 10/18/07 or equivalent before the flakes start flying.

The GFS has been suggesting a potent winter storm event across the high Plains and Front Range this weekend, maybe as far south as Amarillo. As always, the GFS' cold bias is enough to take that with a grain of salt - but if temps/precip can simply come close, there will be some snow on the ground in eastern Coloroado and western OK, KS, and NE. FWIW, the GFS pegged our first frost here last Friday in the mountains, 6 days in advance.

No clue what the JMA JP3 model is, but dang, it too has a monster out there, slower than even the slower ECMWF.

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_144HR.gif

Sunday morning has the thing centered over sw Utah still. A fair amount of precip for northern WY before it really even moves through there.

Looks like the GEM model on Earls is between runs at 120/132hr, so I'm seeing the new run and old run for the same time frame on those. Old run shows the big splitting by 12z Saturday, but on the new run for 12z Saturday(120hr) it's not splitting it now.

Looks like most everything now is going towards the big slower western trough. C'mon 0z runs.

That JP3 thing is nuts though for northern WY. 72hr precip of over 2 inch liquid equivalent, appears it would all be snow...all before the big upper low moves in that direction.

[Matt Sellers]

Originally Posted by Mike Hollingshead

Looks like most everything now is going towards the big slower western trough. C'mon 0z runs.

The 07/00z GFS has shifted significantly from earlier runs (which had been remarkably consistent even at 8-9 days out) and is now in better agreement with the 06/12z ECMWF run... the big slower western trough.

[Gerrit Gulden]

Well, my area is set for a hard freeze tonight and its definetely looking like my area will indeed get snow. The mountains look to get heavy snow and if the storm does what it shows for Models, my area could possibly see heavy snow as well. Winter headlines could be posted as soon as tommorow for areas of the Northwest such as snow advisories, etc. If you do indeed go to Yellowstone Mike, be prepared for possible road closures, etc. It will definetely be a great trip tho since cold weather really makes all the attractions there look like Yellowstone is gonna blow its top. I remember a trip this time of year last year and I swore up and down that Yellowstone was majorly active and I remember even coming home and checking the Seismic activity to see if there were swarms, only to find little to no earthquakes. You might even get to see animals that arent usually there during spring and summer like Bear and wolves.

This storm does have the potential to bring snow, snow/rain mix and freezing rain to many other areas than just the Northwest from what I saw on several models for precip type. I am kind of anxious, yet also not ready to let go of the warm temps. Hopefully there will still be a second season, but it doesnt appear likely for my area.