Target today is northwest Oklahoma to southwest Kansas. Surface low near Dodge City with a wind shift line southwest of there. It is not necessarily a dry line as high dewpoints are still in place at Amarillo, Tucumcari and even Pueblo, CO. I expect the dry line to move out today and fire isolated storms. The wind profiles are not bad at low levels, however, there is a mid-level weakness which will promote Hp's. Upper winds, at 300mb, are relatively weak at 30-40 knots. Not necessarily ideal. Big upper low is still way out in California -so we are playing the top of the ridge here. Greatest instabilities are in the Texas panhandle, however, the greatest dynamics are further north. SPC has a moderate risk out for Kansas today. I think it should be a slight risk. Scattered strato-cu in Dallas with light winds.
10:21 279.6 FLOWER MOUND - Heading north on I-35.
12:29 436 NORMAN- overcast cirrus, scattered low clouds. There is a cluster of marginally severe storms which is moving south through the Oklahoma City area. This is on the tail end of a vort. max.
12:49 459 OKLAHOMA CITY- Winds NW at 10. Rain begins. (OTO-There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight across portions of north-central Oklahoma. There is also a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight across much of central and western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threat. The moderate risk area is north of a line extending from Cushing-Alva. The slight risk area extends north and west of a line from Calvin to Pauls Valley to Windthorst, Texas. Strong to severe thunderstorms across central Oklahoma early this afternoon will continue to move to the east and southeast. These storms are expected to weaken later this afternoon as they move into south-central and southeast Oklahoma and into a less favorable environment for convective activity. A warm front is expected to become better defined by late afternoon from western Kansas to northeastern Oklahoma. A dry line also will become better defined from southeast New Mexico into western Kansas. A surface low is expected to develop near the intersection of the two boundaries this evening. An upper air disturbance over the central Rockies will move east -southeast across Kansas this afternoon and tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity may develop ahead of the dry line across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and move into western and central Oklahoma and western north Texas late this afternoon into tonight. A limiting factor is an increasing capping inversion but with increased afternoon heated and lift aided by the dry line, the inversion may be broken. More widespread activity is expected to develop ahead of the surface low and near the dry line/warm front intersection late this afternoon and evening across western Kansas. Due to the stronger vertical wind shear, this activity is apt to become more organized and long lived as it moves to the east and southeast this evening and overnight into the moderate risk area. Once again, the primary threat will be large hail and damaging straight-lined winds, however, supercell thunderstorm development with isolated tornadoes will be possible especially in the moderate risk area.
1:50 533 BILLINGS - South winds lazy, lots of strato-cu around, hazy. Cirrus south. Stopped for gas before heading further north.
2:13 533 Leaving Billings.
At 2pm:WICHITA- 78/RH=64% S 16g20mph 29.93F NEWTON 77 S 14g20 ATCHINSON 77 S 10 TOPEKA 80 S 10 KANSAS CITY 78 variable 6 DODGE CITY 75 18g 22 EMPORIA 82 S 15 PONCA CITY 78 SW 7
ICT OUTLOOK - South winds have ushered in warm and humid air across the region with dewpoints reaching into the middle 60's. With a partly to mostly sunny skies prevailed in combination with the high humidity levels. A very unstable air mass will be in place across the region. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will push east in to central Kansas late this afternoon especially during the evening. These storms will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. Also, vertical wind profiles suggest some of the storms could have the potential to produce tornadoes. The storms are expected to organize during the evening and push into southeast Kansas late in the evening and especially during the overnight hours. Severe weather along with heavy rain producing local flooding are possible in southeast Kansas from these storms.
3:10 606 WICHITA - Exit Rt. 54 westbound.
3:42 636 Encountering mid-level overcast west of Wichita. Looks outflow worked- over.
3:51 647.6 Stopped at Gatesburg Township Road to bring up Weather Channel
4:08 647.6 Three T-boxes. Convection is beginning to fire first in southwest Kansas. Clearing west of us from this mid-level crap. Still overcast skies.
4:15 655.6 KINGMAN - Overcast mid-level. Light winds, less than 10.
4:45 689.3 PRATT- Scattered strato-cu with a strong southeast wind. Stopped again on west side of town at Holiday Inn. Checked Weather Channel a second time.
5:07 691.6 Leaving Pratt. There are 3 T-boxes. First box is SE NE and NE KS. There are two isolated cells there that look good moving southeast. There are two boxes basically extending from central Kansas down passed the Childress area.
(Dodge City reports storms firing near Tribune and Elkhart moving east. The Tribune cell came from Colorado and had a tornado warning on it earlier.)
5:55 731 MULLINVILLE- Stopped and set up dish a third time to watch Weather Channel.
6:05 731 There are two cells to our west. We are going west on Rt. 54. Anvils are fuzzy. There are 6-T boxes.
6:14 740 BUCKLIN - Cb W and Cb SW - Both anvils are mushy. Mushy anvil N. Cell south has an updraft on its northwest flank and is moving northeastward. Multi-cell N. Overshooting top distant N by I-70 near Oakley. Cirrus splash too. Not much backshear.
6:35 MINNEOLA - (Tornado Warning - Western Wheller Co. A tornadic thunderstorm was indicated by radar and storm spotters at 6:27p 5 N of Kellerville moving south 5-10 mph) WAIT A MINUTE - THE WEATHER CHANNEL SHOWED NOTHING ON SATELLITE OR RADAR THERE!!!
6:36 764 Heading south on Rt. 283.
6:51 781 1 pict of Cb SW near Woodward.
6:56 792 ENGLEWOOD - Rt. 283 S. Cb SW mushy but it's getting better shape. Jct. 64 jogging east
(AMA-Flash flood warning for Wheeler Co. At 6:55pm, AMA radar has indicated a tornadic thunderstorm with rainfall rates of 3 inches per hour in western Wheeler Co. The storm is moving southeast at 15). I bet that Wheeler County storm is on the tail end of that outflow boundary earlier this morning. There is a small Cb developing NW near Dodge City. (Tornado Warning-Wheeler Co. Storm spotters continue to indicate funnel and radar indicates tornado southeast of Kellerville) (Tornado Warning - northern Collinsworth Co.-Doppler radar indicates tornadic thunderstorm moving from southwest Wheeler Co. moving southeast at 10). Severe Thunderstorm Warning Ness Co. KS). There is an LP storm to our south which appears to be on the tail end of a band of mid- and low-level clouds appearing outflowy. I can see the Wheeler Co. storm now. It appears as a mushy line of convection -not impressive. Multiple towers building on the northwest side of the Wheeler Co. storm.
7:40 847 SHATTUCK - South winds. 10-15. Stopped to watch LP storm and take sunset picts.
7:53 857.5 (Tornado Warning continues for northern Collingsworth Co. Troopers indicate a tornado crossed I-40. There are injuries involved says KGNC. Tornado 1.5 miles west of Lela, trucks overturned, cars piled up, people are injured, house destroyed. In Shamrock, softball-size hail has fallen and power lines are downed.)
8:01 SHATTUCK- Still here listening to radio. (At 7:55pm, radar and storm spotters indicate several tornadic storms over western Wheeler County. Damaging tornadoes have occurred)
8:13 878 Rt. 60 SW.
8:18 886 Crossed Texas line.
8:21 889 2 pictures SW.
8:24 Cb SW now has backsheared anvil, a better looking chunky anvil.
8:29 902 GLAZIER
8:35 910 CANADIAN- Rt. 83 S.
8:43 918 1 pict SE - Anvil is mushy again. Can almost see blue sky in it.
(Tornado Warning for northern Donley and eastern Gray Co. At 8:40pm NWS Doppler radar indicates a tornado on the west side of McLean moving east at 10)
8:49 926 1 SW of anvil
8:51 929 1 pict E of anvil
8:53 933 Wheeler County Line.
9:02 945 WHEELER- (Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Collingsworth)
9:15 961 SHAMROCK - I-40W is closed.
9:45 987 WELLINGTON- Encountered pea-marble hail while going through FFD. Wall cloud west of us moving south. Frequent lightning.
10:25 021 CHILDRESS - Pit stop and gas stop.
10:38 021 CHILDRESS - Leaving town with NW Winds.
10:47 HP storm NW with wall cloud lit by lightning.
11:34 081 VERNON
12:12 128 WICHITA FALLS
1:18 204 DECATUR
2:14 257 FLOWER MOUND 980 miles, 15.9, TRW
(should have gone up 287 and waited in Shamrock)