The impact of social media on storm chasing

[Warren Faidley]

Ironic that the original pioneers Dan listed (who used to be the “veterans,” and inspired those of us who are now veterans ourselves) don’t show up here. They are the ones I think we’d like to get back on here, not the “masses” that are on SM, many of which may like looking at pictures or videos but couldn’t care less about detailed chase reports, forecasts, or the science generally. Bigger is not always better. It would be nice to grow the community, but we have to define what that community is, and not look for numbers just for their own sake, at the expense of ruining the neighborhood.

I've always felt that many of the so-called "Veterans" are partially responsible for the current storm chasing lunacy. When I was chasing, they called me out (or worse) when I did anything improper -- often when I was completely innocent. It seems they totally cowered in the corner when the new concept of "let's get close and die," chasing became popular, along with other imbecilic behavior.

 

[Jason N]

Our attention spans, and even our underlying motivations and the shape of our engagement with various beloved activities, have been fundamentally rewired for the worse.

I've said this very thing and I definitely believe it's true, even without specific psychological evidence papers pointing to it.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I've said this very thing and I definitely believe it's true, even without specific psychological evidence papers pointing to it.

Jason, there is evidence of it in brain science - here is an interesting book that I read a few years ago:

The Shallows: What the Internet is doing to our brains - by Nicholas Carr

 

[Camden Scobey]

I have been waiting a year or two for the right time to post. And I think that I might add value here. Keep in mind everything I say is just how I see things. I also speak in generalities way too much. If you are offended by something I say, you probably aren't the target of my criticism.

I started chasing in 2020, but it was whenever I could get someone to let me borrow their car. I was still in college then. It was maybe no more than two or three times per year until 2023 after I got a real job. In college I studied aerospace engineering for a few years and then one year of meteorology. Never had a passion to actually finish aerospace and I wanted to work and earn my own living. I did meteorology just to learn the basics since I always had an interest in it from early childhood. I didn't want to pay for the full degree though since I didn't find interest in doing weather as a job. Just wanted to keep it as my major hobby.

I work in the aerospace industry anyway now. Basically doing the same stuff that others with degrees do. My path required getting ins with different companies and people which in hindsight was probably riskier than just getting the degree. But I do get on the job training whenever I want to learn something new. I can also get off work pretty easily to chase, just have to make up the hours within that same week. I'm completely satisfied with my situation.

Once I got a car last year, I started chasing. Only did it 4 or 5 times. I always made my own forecasts. I planned out specific storm scenarios and my escape routes, viewing areas I might stop at, and overall road surface types according to Google street view. I also mapped out gas stations and other things etc. My first chase of the year was the March 31 high risk event. I had my mind set on going to Iowa. But I was easily influenced at the time. Reed Timmer was going to Illinois and I though it would be best to just have my passenger follow his live stream and I'd drive in the general area of where he was. He's very good at marketing himself and his ideas, so I was sold. Completely wrong decision. Not only did we fail to see a tornado, but I had to drive through several large hail cores and actually had a tornado that I couldn't see, come less than a few hundred yards from the vehicle.

I came to the conclusion, especially after watching some other livestreams of his and other chasers, that it is far more entertaining to watch someone drive through a hail core and then see a tornado or no tornado at all than to stay out of precipitation miles away from a cell while you study its development for an hour. I think that it is intentional for a few live streamers to do stuff like core punching because it gets more views. After that day in March, I decided to never let a chaser live stream decide on where I was going. That decision paid off a few days later on April 4 when I stayed patient in Iowa while Reed and others went to Illinois again. I was able to see my first confirmed tornado. It was beautiful.

This may not seem like I have a point I'm trying to make but I do. The point is that I think that the majority of people who start storm chasing by following live streamers will fall out of the hobby after the first real storm. The second they realize it's serious and that hail and tornadoes can actually hurt them, they will leave. I found out a lot of the basics of chasing and forecasting from places like ST. Anyone who searches up "storm chasing forum" on Google will find ST at the top or near the top. People who are deeply serious about learning the craft will find and use Storm Track, not social media.

Just my .02. Sorry this post was lengthy. I hope it makes sense.

 

[Mike Smith]

One reason I would never attend this specific event is because some view it as a "fan-boy" summit. It's the same people speaking every year and some of the speakers have likely done more harm to the chasing community than good.

It was great when guys like Doswell was actively involved in chasing and speaking because he was not afraid to shake up the chasing community when idiots acted up. He was one of the few respected chasers who had the guts and clout to do it justice. He called me out several times during my "younger" years for idiotic behavior and it made me a better chaser.

I apologize for following up on this comment so late in the thread, but this is a pet-peeve of mine, too: Same speakers, over and over. Like Warren, I've stopped attending.

A suggestion: if we want different speakers and different topics, perhaps it is time to change up the venues. If DFW, OUN/OKC and DEN/Boulder are the only places we come back to time after time, what can we expect other than sameness?

What is wrong with Tulsa, Wichita, or KC?

I worked with Roger to bring Chasercon '19 to ICT. While there was some "sameness," we had a panel discussion between storm chasers, law enforcement and emergency managers ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gFaiBH670M ). It was a huge success. It ran over nearly 45 minutes (last of the day) because it was so interesting and everyone learned so much. All three television stations covered it and our chasing got favorable publicity. The Wichita Hyatt got rave reviews for the rooms and the quality of the catering and restaurant. In addition to storm chasers, we had meteorologists from Wichita TV, NWS across Kansas, AccuWeather, and meteorologists from McConnell AFB as registered attendees.

There are many meteorologists in Kansas City (with the meteorology program at KU nearby). I'm sure there is plenty we could learn some of them plus I'm certain many mets in that area would attend to help make the events (whatever it might be) a financial success.

My point is this: if we want to truly learn, gain new ideas, and "freshen" these conferences, one of the thing that needs to change are the venues as well as the speakers and topics.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I have been waiting a year or two for the right time to post. And I think that I might add value here. Keep in mind everything I say is just how I see things. I also speak in generalities way too much. If you are offended by something I say, you probably aren't the target of my criticism.

I started chasing in 2020, but it was whenever I could get someone to let me borrow their car. I was still in college then. It was maybe no more than two or three times per year until 2023 after I got a real job. In college I studied aerospace engineering for a few years and then one year of meteorology. Never had a passion to actually finish aerospace and I wanted to work and earn my own living. I did meteorology just to learn the basics since I always had an interest in it from early childhood. I didn't want to pay for the full degree though since I didn't find interest in doing weather as a job. Just wanted to keep it as my major hobby.

I work in the aerospace industry anyway now. Basically doing the same stuff that others with degrees do. My path required getting ins with different companies and people which in hindsight was probably riskier than just getting the degree. But I do get on the job training whenever I want to learn something new. I can also get off work pretty easily to chase, just have to make up the hours within that same week. I'm completely satisfied with my situation.

Once I got a car last year, I started chasing. Only did it 4 or 5 times. I always made my own forecasts. I planned out specific storm scenarios and my escape routes, viewing areas I might stop at, and overall road surface types according to Google street view. I also mapped out gas stations and other things etc. My first chase of the year was the March 31 high risk event. I had my mind set on going to Iowa. But I was easily influenced at the time. Reed Timmer was going to Illinois and I though it would be best to just have my passenger follow his live stream and I'd drive in the general area of where he was. He's very good at marketing himself and his ideas, so I was sold. Completely wrong decision. Not only did we fail to see a tornado, but I had to drive through several large hail cores and actually had a tornado that I couldn't see, come less than a few hundred yards from the vehicle.

I came to the conclusion, especially after watching some other livestreams of his and other chasers, that it is far more entertaining to watch someone drive through a hail core and then see a tornado or no tornado at all than to stay out of precipitation miles away from a cell while you study its development for an hour. I think that it is intentional for a few live streamers to do stuff like core punching because it gets more views. After that day in March, I decided to never let a chaser live stream decide on where I was going. That decision paid off a few days later on April 4 when I stayed patient in Iowa while Reed and others went to Illinois again. I was able to see my first confirmed tornado. It was beautiful.

This may not seem like I have a point I'm trying to make but I do. The point is that I think that the majority of people who start storm chasing by following live streamers will fall out of the hobby after the first real storm. The second they realize it's serious and that hail and tornadoes can actually hurt them, they will leave. I found out a lot of the basics of chasing and forecasting from places like ST. Anyone who searches up "storm chasing forum" on Google will find ST at the top or near the top. People who are deeply serious about learning the craft will find and use Storm Track, not social media.

Just my .02. Sorry this post was lengthy. I hope it makes sense.

You and I flip-flopped on those 2 events (I scored on 3/31 and busted 4/4). Following Reed is a good way to get yourself killed, glad you found that out before anything worse happened.

 

[Jason N]

@Camden Scobey
I think several agree with you in principle.... I've seen RT bust so many times it's not even funny, and he certainly wins more than his fair share to, but what is the definition of "winning" or "success" in chasing. (Likes, $$, fame at elevated risk for self and others?) or (growth, knowledge, pleasure while driving to your own tune). Personally, I will take the latter all the time. Tornado counts aren't a score board of success, intelligence, or group seniority if the manner in which you obtain it is hyper risky (people's definitions of it vary). I'd personally rather fail at seeing a tornado, be safe, learn, and see the joys of the hunt perceived through the destinations, the views, process improvement, develop skills and techniques or methods, while keeping it simple, safe, and not over complicate it. Even the most seasoned chasers get it wrong. Being your own chaser affords you the ability to compare notes with others on here, or out in the field, and you'll pick up stuff or omit it if it's stupid or useless to what you're after.

That Said, everyone who does it has a motive, and someone is bound to criticize motives here and there just because we have to freedom to go out and be stupid while streaming lol. If or when I know RT or a few others are near, I drive elsewhere, not because of him/them per say, but because of the hoards that sometimes follow. The Chaser Hoard is real, I've witnessed it more times than I care to remember, oddly enough, Vortex and DOW drew in sooo many inexperienced flash mob chasers on a few occasions it was crazy ( ohh THOSE guys are EXPERTS! let's hang with them) needless to say they have a JOB and you are getting in the way of it!.... so, I have learned to walk away and fast from dense clusters of chasers and outsmart and out speed the group just by better planning. Develop a what you will or won't chase plan and stick to it.

--Getting off topic a bit here--
One of the videos I watch over and over again is El Reno Lessons Learned. The amount of Luck that more people weren't killed that day astounds me, purely on the basis of roads packed with traffic, time of day(rush hour), the extensive flooding from previous days storms to. simply amazing. and again, why I won't go after storms in certain areas unless I know the conditions prior to the day I'm choosing to go, routes, escapes, etc.

but to bring it back into this topic: was social media was even considered as a factor that day (positive or negative?)

 

[Camden Scobey]

but to bring it back into this topic: was social media was even considered as a factor that day (positive or negative?)

I agree with all of what you said. That's a good point you make also, on what defines success in a chase. For me it is learning something new and making it back without damaging my car too much. This year I have set aside money to just rent cars and take the damage coverage, so now success will be making it back safely and learning something new during the chase.

For social media on that day... it was considered a factor. And it was negative in every way. I had everything planned out in a completely different state. But then allowed myself to be swayed like that, to a place I did zero research on, or the road conditions, or what areas had significant ridges with tree cover etc. Completely my fault, but hey, you have to learn sometime. I got incredibly lucky.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I wonder if "extreme animal handling" discussion groups and social discussed Steve Irwin ad nauseam before he finally bit the big one?

 

[Jason N]

If you bump up against high risk long enough, it's going to bump back at a time of its own choosing.

 

[Jason N]

I had everything planned out in a completely different state. But then allowed myself to be swayed like that, to a place I did zero research on, or the road conditions,

I think your statement here sums up an underrepresented data point in many new chasers that rely on the Social media "group think", by virtue of social media clustering. When people center into regions that rely on 1 or 3 or 4 presumably more experienced or "well known" influencers or actual experienced chasers it does a few potentially critical things.

1. Those "experienced" chasers are doing what they do, with the experience they have. They aren't taking responsibility for the "Hoard" that follows them, but by virtue of being popular, it pulls in younger/less experienced people who just tag along for the group ride, and then others pile on based on clusters of data points on chaser maps or X, or (insert whatever mode of SM). Now it becomes a snowball of issues.

2. I am guessing they will be operating on the assumption that "you're safer in groups", which is a nice thought but, when its chase time and there's excitement tunnel vision, the only thing happening is follow the leader. or, some might get adventurous and say, "let's take that back road I see on the map without thinking. its dirt, it's gonna rain on it, you don't have the tires for it, "i'm stuck, we can't get out... crap we're screwed". I know for a fact that's happened, I've passed by many people experiencing that very thing, helped 1 or 2 out as well. Which leads me to....

3. Assuming someone is going to stop to help you out in an extreme situation. probably not in MOST cases when preserving life is a default measure for most people.

is the above description par for the course everywhere all the time? no.. but, I believe it to be more common than not. The bottom line is when starting out, be Risk Averse, study roads, stick to highways and secondary roads (paved) skip the dirt. take your time, avoid large groups. know some basic medical. stay 5 miles or more outside of the MESO at all times, don't chase storms moving faster that 35mph. and stop chasing after sunset.. you aren't good enough for nocturnal tornado chases, heck most aren't especially alone in unfamiliar areas/roads.

 

[John Farley]

On the aspect of this thread relating to revitalizing Stormtrack, the number of posts here tells me that, if the topic of a thread is of interest to people, there are still a lot of potential participants. Just look at the number of posts in the past week. It has been a while since I have seen this many on any topic, but if a topic strikes a chord, this is what can happen. What does perplex and frustrate me, though, is the lack of posts and discussion on the topic that is what Stormtrack is supposed to be about - actually chasing and forecasting and planning chases. TA has, compared to the past, been a lot less active the last few years. Even on days when lots of people are out chasing, neither the EVENT nor the REPORTS threads are very active. Even on such days,, you just don't see much in TA. Now, as represented by the posts above about less experienced chasers just trying to follow Reed Timmer and others, I get that some might not want to post their forecasts in an EVENT thread for fear of attracting the hordes to their target area. Although given the nature and smaller number (compared to SM) of those who are active on Stormtrack, I do not know how much of a legitimate issue that really is. And of course, that does not explain why a lot of people do not post to REPORTS threads on storms they were on. I know that, in recent years, there have been many people who do post on Stormtrack who were on storms on particular days, but never posted a report on their chase in ST. (Some did post in social media, others did not) And this lack of REPORTS posts on ST is a loss. I love comparing notes with other chasers who were on storms I was on, or chasing the same day but made a decision to go elsewhere. I think it is helpful in understanding what went on with the storm and why my chase strategy worked or did not. And as others have pointed out, the organization of Stormtrack makes it much easier to later go back and find forecasts and reports for a particular day than you could ever do on social media Bottom line, the participation in this thread suggests to me that the issue may not be so much getting more people to participate in Stormtrack as it is to get people who do participate to make it a regular habit to participate in the EVENT and REPORTS threads for days they do chase.

 

[Jason N]

On the aspect of this thread relating to revitalizing Stormtrack, the number of posts here tells me that, if the topic of a thread is of interest to people, there are still a lot of potential participants. Just look at the number of posts in the past week. It has been a while since I have seen this many on any topic, but if a topic strikes a chord, this is what can happen. What does perplex and frustrate me, though, is the lack of posts and discussion on the topic that is what Stormtrack is supposed to be about - actually chasing and forecasting and planning chases. TA has, compared to the past, been a lot less active the last few years. Even on days when lots of people are out chasing, neither the EVENT nor the REPORTS threads are very active. Even on such days,, you just don't see much in TA. Now, as represented by the posts above about less experienced chasers just trying to follow Reed Timmer and others, I get that some might not want to post their forecasts in an EVENT thread for fear of attracting the hordes to their target area. Although given the nature and smaller number (compared to SM) of those who are active on Stormtrack, I do not know how much of a legitimate issue that really is. And of course, that does not explain why a lot of people do not post to REPORTS threads on storms they were on. I know that, in recent years, there have been many people who do post on Stormtrack who were on storms on particular days, but never posted a report on their chase in ST. (Some did post in social media, others did not) And this lack of REPORTS posts on ST is a loss. I love comparing notes with other chasers who were on storms I was on, or chasing the same day but made a decision to go elsewhere. I think it is helpful in understanding what went on with the storm and why my chase strategy worked or did not. And as others have pointed out, the organization of Stormtrack makes it much easier to later go back and find forecasts and reports for a particular day than you could ever do on social media Bottom line, the participation in this thread suggests to me that the issue may not be so much getting more people to participate in Stormtrack as it is to get people who do participate to make it a regular habit to participate in the EVENT and REPORTS threads for days they do chase.

If I had to post "feedback" about the (Event, Target, and Reports sections), and "this is purely my opinion btw", I am not trying to hurt anyone's feelings, but it's feedback all the same. For me, I think it's the format of all of it that stops me from contributing more to it. I get the feeling by looking at it that its something like a WFO Discussion format...The Narrative with picture format takes time. It's after actions/post chase type of reporting/analysis and a lot can get lost between the time of the chase and the time you get done driving for the day, get settled, and make a post.

I would say if you are looking for more contributions, then the format of all of these might need to be modernized to include a pre-formatted and standardized set of maps, charts, say from SPC's Analysis page, or something like it, zoomed into the threat region, where you can embed your location, insert photo's where applicable, and add context to Microscale condition present at the time of the chase. Perhaps there is some kind of AI working in the background to feed the information once you tell it where you are, and what time it is, it feeds in the most relevant pre-formatted information as like a placeholder, then you add in context, any additional environmental information if applicable, insert pictures from gallery or live, then have a button that says "preliminary report" and "final report".. because you may just want to get something in fast, and then go back later to amplify what was going on at the time. People like maps and visualizations that direct you to areas, and then have the ability to click an icon for a report. I guess the challenge would be how you archive them.. Maybe similar to how SPC Archives their SR's. Just a thought.

I personally don't want to spend time recording information only to have to go back later to remember it all. Now, that might disqualify me from even making reports here because I do want to be as thorough as possible, but I think building in some baseline everyone can attach themselves to which might even increase the Quality of lesser experienced or knowledgeable chasers on here, that AI Preformatted report benefits them on some small level. Now, if there's an expectation and specific way of doing things. I certainly can respect that. This is just me spouting off a thoughtful idea/recommendation.

 

[gdlewen]

I know that, in recent years, there have been many people who do post on Stormtrack who were on storms on particular days, but never posted a report on their chase in ST. (Some did post in social media, others did not) And this lack of REPORTS posts on ST is a loss. I love comparing notes with other chasers who were on storms I was on, or chasing the same day but made a decision to go elsewhere. I think it is helpful in understanding what went on with the storm and why my chase strategy worked or did not.

I'm highlighting only a portion of @John Farley 's excellent post. The lack of reports is indeed a loss for the community. I like the long reports--I check the cities or routes, check the radar output from the chase encounter times, and try to decide, "Would I have been there?"

I tend to write long reports, mostly because I learn a lot from the post-analysis. (However: it requires discipline to post detailed analysis for this group because there's literally nowhere to hide the gaps in one's knowledge and experience--it's all out there, exposed for the world to see. You just have to hold your nose and do it anyway, in the hopes someone will find it useful, or someone will offer helpful advice, etc.)

 

[Ben Holcomb]

What does perplex and frustrate me, though, is the lack of posts and discussion on the topic that is what Stormtrack is supposed to be about - actually chasing and forecasting and planning chases. ... Bottom line, the participation in this thread suggests to me that the issue may not be so much getting more people to participate in Stormtrack as it is to get people who do participate to make it a regular habit to participate in the EVENT and REPORTS threads for days they do chase.

I want to wholeheartedly agree here. To be honest, it's really a pain (and a lot of work) to post pre chase thoughts and maps and what not, but it's so helpful later on down the line. We have more people out than ever documenting storms and no central place to collect that data that is easily searchable. This is the obvious venue for such thing. On my chase recaps, I try to link to a report thread and then post in the report thread to link my chase recap so it can be found later on.

It seems to go back to the fact that most people don't think it's worth the "effort" for the "payoff" because they aren't getting the dopamine hits. I always thought chasing was the way it was because of money. Pretty much everything in life is about the money. At some point, I have began to rethink. Dopamine hits from likes/shares, seeing themselves on the TEEVEE, being popular on social media, etc. seems to be a lot stronger than I had previously considered. I've heard it called "Generation Me" and it sure seems that way in all facets of modern society including chasing.

 

[Todd Lemery]

I’m a real slacker when it comes to posting target area and post chase summaries. I’m too lazy about posting my target area. I’m fine with just calling out “Wichita Falls”, but nobody cares if you don’t at least post a couple of reasons why you are targeting there. It’s easier to do when you’re not actively chasing that day and really hard to do if you’re driving to your target.
Post chase causes a dilemma too. I always intend to better document chases, but in reality the day always turns into a bit of a blur with what roads I took and why. The only part that’s easy to recall is where the chase ended and why. Add in the fact that I’m one of the world’s worst photographers and a post chase description leaves even me disappointed.

 

[JamesCaruso]

On the aspect of this thread relating to revitalizing Stormtrack, the number of posts here tells me that, if the topic of a thread is of interest to people, there are still a lot of potential participants. Just look at the number of posts in the past week. It has been a while since I have seen this many on any topic, but if a topic strikes a chord, this is what can happen. What does perplex and frustrate me, though, is the lack of posts and discussion on the topic that is what Stormtrack is supposed to be about - actually chasing and forecasting and planning chases. TA has, compared to the past, been a lot less active the last few years. Even on days when lots of people are out chasing, neither the EVENT nor the REPORTS threads are very active. Even on such days,, you just don't see much in TA. Now, as represented by the posts above about less experienced chasers just trying to follow Reed Timmer and others, I get that some might not want to post their forecasts in an EVENT thread for fear of attracting the hordes to their target area. Although given the nature and smaller number (compared to SM) of those who are active on Stormtrack, I do not know how much of a legitimate issue that really is. And of course, that does not explain why a lot of people do not post to REPORTS threads on storms they were on. I know that, in recent years, there have been many people who do post on Stormtrack who were on storms on particular days, but never posted a report on their chase in ST. (Some did post in social media, others did not) And this lack of REPORTS posts on ST is a loss. I love comparing notes with other chasers who were on storms I was on, or chasing the same day but made a decision to go elsewhere. I think it is helpful in understanding what went on with the storm and why my chase strategy worked or did not. And as others have pointed out, the organization of Stormtrack makes it much easier to later go back and find forecasts and reports for a particular day than you could ever do on social media Bottom line, the participation in this thread suggests to me that the issue may not be so much getting more people to participate in Stormtrack as it is to get people who do participate to make it a regular habit to participate in the EVENT and REPORTS threads for days they do chase.

Well-said John. I agree completely. Like you, I also find tremendous value in forensically reconstructing a chase day (and figuring out how I screwed up!) by reading about the thought processes and decisions made by other chasers. The more detail the better, in terms of times, locations, roads, viewing direction, etc. The long-form chase report is becoming a lost art, and needs to be revitalized!

Having said that, and despite the fact that I generally enjoy writing and documenting things, I am guilty as charged, at least for 2023… I still have handwritten notes from my 2023 chase vacation that I intended to organize into chase reports for ST, but I never got around to it. Heck, I never even posted my usual seasonal recap summary (I don’t think there was ever even an overall thread for the “season in review” for 2023, like there was in other years). I will blame it on getting busy with work and other things once my trip was over, and lack of time. I suspect that’s the case for many. But it’s no excuse, because it’s a matter of prioritizing it and making time. I do still want to get my stuff posted from last year, just for posterity, even if nobody cares about 2023 at this point. And I’ll try to stay more current this coming year - let’s just hope there are a lot of chase days to write about!

 

[JamesCaruso]

there's literally nowhere to hide the gaps in one's knowledge and experience--it's all out there, exposed for the world to see. You just have to hold your nose and do it anyway, in the hopes someone will find it useful, or someone will offer helpful advice, etc

There’s no reason to worry about that Geoff. I can see being sensitive to that when posting a Target, but in Reports you can just post the facts - what you did, what you saw. Reading about mistakes helps others as much, or more, than reading about successes. You don’t have to post the meteorological interpretation if you don’t want to. Having said that, writing helps clarify thought, so it would benefit you to do that in both Targeting and Reporting, and you can always caveat things that you are not certain about so that a more novice reader knows not to take it as gospel. In any event, you know more than you think and should have the confidence to post it.

it's really a pain (and a lot of work) to post pre chase thoughts and maps and what not, but it's so helpful later on down the line

Agreed on both counts - a lot of work, but valuable to the one posting (for documentation, retention in your own mind, and clarifying understanding of forecasts and outcomes) and to the ones reading.

tter document chases, but in reality the day always turns into a bit of a blur with what roads I took and why.

Yeah, that happens to me too. I used to be better with that, especially in the paper map days. Now, more blindly following Google Maps, I’m not as attuned to the road names. I also used to be better at that when I was in the passenger seat as navigator; now, most often I’m the driver during the chase. My chase partners used to help recreate the path after the event, but that doesn’t seem to happen as much anymore. There is software to track and save your path; I tried that one year, but forgot to activate it half the time

 

[Dan Robinson]

My hesitation with posting in forecast threads is that paradoxically, the longer I chase, the *less* I feel qualified to post anything insightful or useful on a setup. Like most of us, I'm nearly completely self-taught, with tidbits of knowledge cobbled together from experience, academic papers, other chaser's accounts and some of the talks (Youtube, et al) by figures in severe storms meteorology. This results in my concept of the atmosphere being unrefined and in many ways flawed. I feel that any time I post something meteorological, there’s probably a lot of behind-the-scenes snickering at how deficient my grasp of what most would probably say I should have mastered 25 years ago. Though that self-consciousness may be irrational, it does keep me silent on days I might otherwise try to offer thoughts.

Some of that became evident to me after I started mainly choosing secondary targets closer to home in the Midwest over the past 6 or 7 years. I figured I had more or less “mastered” the primary targeting, at least enough to have some degree of success. But these secondary target days have really revealed the gaps in my knowledge to the point that I wonder if my past successes were more luck than any knowledge I thought I had!

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'd rather see someone trying to add something positive to the discussion rather than the hype we see on social media. I've seen some real gut busters over the last few years, some written by "climatology" PhD's who should stick to weekend corn festival forecasts. Last years forecast that May was going to be "out of this world," is a prime example. I would never put anyone down for trying to add to the conversation, as long as it's not hype constructed for likes.

 

[Mark Gressman Jr]

I think some of these ideas shared in the last few posts could even be part of a whole new thread for ways to improve engagement with ST, but it does go to show the benefits of social media... convenience/ease of use. But the thing to remember is, we're here for US..... fellow enthusiasts. I know there are certain expectations/rules to participate in TA, but it shouldn't matter how voluminous it is, so long as it adds value to the conversation, and you enjoy it. That's the difference between ST and social media.

Posting here is to be part of a dedicated community, for us and by us, for the betterment of the collective group. Where as, social media is best used for posting to everyone, for a variety of other reasons, but normally for the benefit of one's ego. If you keep your social circle closed and use social media for furthering business opportunities, it can be useful. But when you're posting to the masses, for maximum exposure, the quality usually goes down to the lowest common denominator, and the negativity typically follows not too far behind.

To me, that's really the most obvious impact on chasing... the division of the community and how it's portrayed... for good or bad. And that pretty much holds true for the rest of our society as well.

 

[JamesCaruso]

My hesitation with posting in forecast threads is that paradoxically, the longer I chase, the *less* I feel qualified to post anything insightful or useful on a setup. Like most of us, I'm nearly completely self-taught, with tidbits of knowledge cobbled together from experience, academic papers, other chaser's accounts and some of the talks (Youtube, et al) by figures in severe storms meteorology. This results in my concept of the atmosphere being unrefined and in many ways flawed. I feel that any time I post something meteorological, there’s probably a lot of behind-the-scenes snickering at how deficient my grasp of what most would probably say I should have mastered 25 years ago. Though that self-consciousness may be irrational, it does keep me silent on days I might otherwise try to offer thoughts.

Some of that became evident to me after I started mainly choosing secondary targets closer to home in the Midwest over the past 6 or 7 years. I figured I had more or less “mastered” the primary targeting, at least enough to have some degree of success. But these secondary target days have really revealed the gaps in my knowledge to the point that I wonder if my past successes were more luck than any knowledge I thought I had!

Wow Dan, that’s awesome, thanks for sharing that. I would never have thought that - I always considered you a proficient forecaster. I feel exactly the same way as you describe. After a similar amount of time chasing as you, I similarly feel that I should have mastered certain things long ago. Like you, my learning has been somewhat haphazard, through experience, trial and error, drilling down on a topic here or there, but not structured in an academic way, no semblance of a “curriculum.” As a result, many of my forecasts are based on intuition, which can be hard to articulate into a Target Area post.

I think there is a Dunning-Kruger effect here too - the incompetent think they’re competent, while the competent think they are incompetent. The more knowledge you have, the more you realize how much you don’t know, and the more intellectually humble you become (or should become - there are many in the so-called intelligencia or “expert class” that have no intellectual humility whatsoever - but I won’t go there right now ).

 

[Jonathan Scrogham]

Obviously there are so many downsides to social media, but one positive I can’t ignore is that it gives many more chasers the opportunity to make it their livelihood . I can’t imagine we would have as many full time chasers as we do now without social media, although I guess that is up to interpretation whether that is a good or bad thing. But there are people who have turned doing what they loved most into a full time job, and I think that’s pretty awesome. I personally would love an opportunity to chase full time once I’m old enough.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Wow Dan, that’s awesome, thanks for sharing that. I would never have thought that - I always considered you a proficient forecaster.

Thanks James - I had a "dream" run with tornadoes from 2013 to 2017 that boosted my confidence quite a bit, then the years following were full of failures that revealed I wasn't as proficient as I'd thought I was. My last good tornado day was Selden in 2021, and even that was more fortuitous than skill, mainly from my aversion to muddy roads making me not want to stay with the Leoti storm. The last two Plains seasons I've avoided goose-eggs, but not by much. It could be that I'm at that place on the Dunning-Kruger curve, but in some ways I feel like I'm near the ceiling of my ability.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Thanks James - I had a "dream" run with tornadoes from 2013 to 2017 that boosted my confidence quite a bit, then the years following were full of failures that revealed I wasn't as proficient as I'd thought I was. My last good tornado day was Selden in 2021, and even that was more fortuitous than skill, mainly from my aversion to muddy roads making me not want to stay with the Leoti storm. The last two Plains seasons I've avoided goose-eggs, but not by much. It could be that I'm at that place on the Dunning-Kruger curve, but in some ways I feel like I'm near the ceiling of my ability.

With the exception of Dodge City in 2016 (and still missed Chapman), I had a string of goose eggs from 2013 until Selden. That’s seven years! (I didn’t chase in 2020.) I should have just hung it up for good… There were some bad years in there (or just bad patterns during my chase vacation), but most years there was at least one good thing I could have or should have gotten… You have to love the *process* to keep going in the face of that level of failure and frustration… I think chasing is like baseball, where a .300 average is still pretty darn good.

There’s no reason to think there is ever a “ceiling on ability,” especially with something like this, which doesn’t require any natural-born physical attributes like in sports. But at some point there might be diminishing returns in trying to get too much better (i.e., probably not going to improve that .300 average no matter what, simply due to all the reasons that even the professionals cannot forecast with 100% accuracy). Or maybe getting too into the technical details of forecasting is not fun for some beyond a certain point, and you’re happy with a particular level of proficiency for recreational chasing. This would probably make another interesting thread!