Boris Konon
EF3
Of course it will happen again, given enough time. From the limited good data period we have, it does not seem to be a common event.
We went 37 years between Superoutbreaks 1974 to 2011, but that's only two data points. Since tornado documentation declines
quickly prior to the 1950s, it's hard to really know the real frequency of such large and intense outbreaks. Prior to 1950, there is
evidence of outbreaks on the 1974 and 2011 scale, but on paper they do not look that impressive, at least in terms of the
number of tornadoes in each outbreak. Many violent tornadoes do show up well in this period, but even some of those were very
likely missed. Most focus in those days were on tornadoes that hit populated areas.
If another Superoutbreak occurs say in the next 10 years, that still does not give us any real pattern, nor is it a "sign" of anything.
When dealing with events that only occur once every several decades or more, you need a much longer period of solid, reliable records
to get any real sense of how often these occur. In this case, at least 150 years of good tornado records is likely needed.
We went 37 years between Superoutbreaks 1974 to 2011, but that's only two data points. Since tornado documentation declines
quickly prior to the 1950s, it's hard to really know the real frequency of such large and intense outbreaks. Prior to 1950, there is
evidence of outbreaks on the 1974 and 2011 scale, but on paper they do not look that impressive, at least in terms of the
number of tornadoes in each outbreak. Many violent tornadoes do show up well in this period, but even some of those were very
likely missed. Most focus in those days were on tornadoes that hit populated areas.
If another Superoutbreak occurs say in the next 10 years, that still does not give us any real pattern, nor is it a "sign" of anything.
When dealing with events that only occur once every several decades or more, you need a much longer period of solid, reliable records
to get any real sense of how often these occur. In this case, at least 150 years of good tornado records is likely needed.