This looks like it might be the best chase day of the year so far (of course this is still 6 days out). GFS has an impressive moisture field and LLJ of 50-60kts.

Here is a forecast sounding for 00z. The cap could prove to be quite stout, but the further north you get on the DL the better your chances for initiation.

For now, I will leave out a more detailed discussion and dream of the possibilities. It will be interesting to see how the WRF/NAM handle the 500 hPa... [Read More]

Ok, I am going to try do some analysis on what appears to be a strong system moving through the Missouri Valley on Monday, May 20. I'm going to keep this in the introductory forum and just mimic the target area format because I'm a noob at this...so any additional thoughts on this forecast are very welcome, as well as any tips or feedback on other things to analyze for this!

Ok so...

Latest GFS shows great instability across the majority of Illinois and eastern... [Read More]

A mini-supercell dropped a weak EF-0 tornado that left two damage tracks in Limestone County of north Alabama today. Watching the storm on NEXRAD reflectivity from KHTX revealed a blob with a slight bulge on the SW corner, but WAFF-TV's Doppler, which was much closer to the storm, returned reflectivity signatures that looked like a much more impressive tornado:

... [Read More]

With the GFS continuing its trend of slowing down the storm system Sunday is a day that is looking better and better after each model run.

0z GFS progs Dryline along the I-35 Corridor in KS/OK with a warm front futher north in IA. Depending on trough evolution the Warm Front might have mode of convection issues with a Back-Veer-Back profile.

Cooling aloft should spread over the Target Area, so CAP might not be too big of a factor - though would like some EML to hold... [Read More]

Ended up on the Clay/Wise county monster. Had a late start so we didn't intercept until it was north of Decatur on HWY 51. We witnessed a large cone emerge from the rain and nearly gobble us up. Also witnessed a multi-vortex a little further north on 51 with an insane amount of powerflashes under it. This tornado had some of the most crazy motion I've ever seen. I promise to post pics very soon, probably tomorrow. All in all a great backyard chase on a super marginal day.