JamesCaruso
Staff member
Took a look at some early-morning analysis. Cap looks to stay strong in SW KS and TX PH. Not much convergence along dryline. Models seem in agreement with a dryline bulge type of feature in west central / NW KS, with moisture wrapping up around the surface low and backed winds along the warm front. However, this creates a very narrow zone of instability with the NW/SE-oriented warm front and relatively cool air to the east. I think it would be a tough decision to make at this moment (it's only 5am CDT). One possibility is around Hays KS; further north has better backed winds and convergence, but it's a more just-in-time moisture situation (60s dewpoints confined to OK and extreme SW KS right now) and the noted narrower region of instability. SW KS should have deeper moisture and a wider zone of instability, but less convergence along the dryline and a stronger cap. Perhaps there will be an outflow boundary / dryline intersection that provides the necessary convergence. Or maybe open warm sector initiation with large-scale forcing from the mid/upper-level support? I would be thinking a bit east of DDC could be a viable roll-the-dice target. If I were really chasing, I'd want to see more over the next few hours, as it's pretty early yet, and it does not seem clear-cut to me at the moment.
EDIT: When I looked at this 24 hours ago (using OZ 4/24 model runs) the GFS had the warm front and moisture progressing further north in Kansas than did the Euro. The current consensus appears closer to what the GFS was already showing earlier.
EDIT: When I looked at this 24 hours ago (using OZ 4/24 model runs) the GFS had the warm front and moisture progressing further north in Kansas than did the Euro. The current consensus appears closer to what the GFS was already showing earlier.
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