There are so many ways I think you could attack this topic of accuracy/verification topic and what I write here is not meant to solve anything. it is definitely an interesting topic always, and I have definitely been part of these discussions before in my own right.
- spatial coverage given the size of the polygon? i.e. if a marginal area covers 25,000 sq miles and you get 1 report, is that a bust? or a hit. Does it depend on who you ask?
- does defining the risk trump any accuracy? (how much accuracy should matter in terms of defining risk to the public)
- how do they define ISOLD / SCT/ Numerous / Widespread (coverage area on Sq miles? or resultant number of storm reports inside the polygon)
- are storm reports part of the SPC verification process of the previous models forecast?
1. say you cover the entire plains in Enhanced and you get 6 tornado reports 2 EFO, 3 EF2, 1 EF4 .. anyone located inside the EF4 might be thankful for the Enhanced area. take a step back and people might say, that was a bust for such a large area of coverage that only received 6 confirmed reports.
- how much does the public really rely on SPC outlooks vs. local NWS announcements watches or warnings (I really don't know). I assume that maybe some study was done to ask this kind of question? I would assume services/business/EOC/Aviation/Chasers may rely on SPC more than generic public? total guess but it feels accurate/logical in my head anyway, lol.
- How many severe storm reports on lower end forecasts does it take to bust a lower end risk?
I could honestly keep going and ask more questions, but at the end of the day, I know the SPC is the best at characterizing the risk for the day. Do busts happen? sure, are there reasons meteorologically that delay or cap convection that the models missed, absolutely. As seasoned chasers, especially ones with meteorological backgrounds, it's our job to see through the baseline and investigate the micro to place ourselves in the location with the best potential.
and we ALL bust at one time or another.